Here are my picks for the top 10 finishers at the 2006 Subway Fresh 500 at Phoenix International Raceway.

Here’s the actual statistics for the NASCAR Nextel (Winston) Cup races the last 3 years at Phoenix International Raceway. This is for active drivers only.

I generated these NASCAR driver statistics here.

As always, I’m open to suggestions.

What do you think about the picks?

What are yours?

I wonder if the execs at M & M’s and Robert Yates Racing ever leave the race track wondering where their driver was?

They saw the car, but was that Tony Stewart behind the wheel of the M & M’s Ford?

I was racing my NASCAR Thunder 2004 last night and the intro featured one very clean shaven and baby faced Elliott Sadler assuring me with his Virginia twang that, “…it’s in the game!”

I thought wow…what a change. I remember when he said that he was gonna adopt the ‘Keith Urban’ look, cause all the chicks dig Keith. Once I verified with my wife who Keith Urban was I understood his comment.

As a web designer / programmer, I enjoy the benefit of a jeans and t-shirt enviroment. I only shave when: a) my wife says, “You need to shave.”, b) the boss says, “You need to shave.” or c) I look in the mirror and sigh, “I really need to shave.”

While digging around for older pics of Elliott Sadler I found an interesting and could much be written about paradox of NASCAR drivers and their sponsorships marketing of them.

Take for example the first two pictures as being the ones on the M & M’s racing website and Robert Yates Racing. Now contrast them with the third picture of the Elliott Sadler we know and love.

Tony Stewart is another excellent example of the marketing juggling-act that big money sponsorship wants and the desire to just let me be a racecar driver holds. Age and looks = marketability.

Be a racer Elliott. Win one at Texas for us today.

I’ve made some adjustments to my normal manner of picking the top 10 for previous NASCAR races. You can read about my enlightenment.

Here are my picks for the top 10 finishers at the 2006 Samsung / RadioShack 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.

Here’s the actual statistics for the NASCAR Nextel (Winston) Cup races the last 3 years at Texas Motor Speedway. This is for active drivers only.

I generated these NASCAR race statistics here.

As always, I’m open to suggestions.

What do you think about the picks?

What are yours?

I’ve given it a shot for 4 out of the first 6 NASCAR races to predict the Top 10 based solely on previous performance statistics. So far, my percentage of correct Top 10 predictions is at a dismal 47% accuracy.

My predictions have been based on:

• Previous year & multi-year average finish at that track
• Previous year & multi-year average finish at the most similar track
• Previous year & multi-year average finish at that particular track shape
• Previous year & multi-year average finish at that particular track length

I believe there are more factors that play into predicting a more accurate result. I’ve found 2 excellent studies on this very topic.

1. Do Reliable Predictors Exist for the Outcome of NASCAR Races? 
2. Hierarchical Models for Permutations: Analysis of Auto Racing Results (.pdf)

Pretty meaty stuff for a guy that only took Basic math 1 & 2 in college. But, they have provided some great insight into other factors that contribute to more accurately predicting the outcome of a NASCAR race.

I’m going to add some more statistics to my Ultimate NASCAR Database and whip up some groovy PHP scripts to mix the suggested variables together and see if the accuracy picks up.

Definitely more to come.