Why a NASCAR Drivers Average Is Not The Best Measurement

A NASCAR drivers average finish is a popular statistical benchmark used to determine how well a driver does at a certain track or track type. Look at these NASCAR stats sites:

• Yahoo! Sports NASCAR Statistics
• Fox Sports NASCAR Statistics
• NASCAR.com Driver Statistics

They all have a column for ‘Average Start’ and ‘Average Finish’. I’ve got the same statistic scattered all over my pages as well.

Now, I’m a NASCAR fan and web design guy, not a statistician. But, I’ve been reading up on the difference between MEAN (aka AVERAGE) and MEDIAN (middle number).

What is MEAN?

Figuring the MEAN, or AVERAGE, of a group of numbers is simply adding them up and then dividing by how many numbers you added. For example, take Dale Earnhardt Jr’s finishes at Daytona International Speedway.

1 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 13 + 13 + 29 + 35 + 36 = 160.

Divide 160 by 14 (the number of race results added up) and you get 11.429.

So, we say that Dale Jr’s AVERAGE Finish at Daytona is 11th.

What is MEDIAN?

Now, lets look at the MEDIAN of Dale Earnhardt Jr’s Daytona finishes. We’re going to knock a number off from each end until we are at the middle.

1 1 2 3 3 3 6 7 8 13 13 29 35 36.

We’re left with his 6th and 7th place finishes. Now, lets take the MEAN (or AVERAGE) of those two numbers. 6 + 7 = 13 and then 13/2 = 6.500 So, now we see that the MEDIAN finish for Dale Jr is about 7th. That’s 4 positions better than his AVERAGE finish of 11th.

Which is More Accurate?

I’m leaning more towards the MEDIAN number being the better statistic to look at.

Dale Earnhardt Jr at Daytona

In Dale Earnhardt Jr’s case, he has 8 of 14 finishes that are 7th or better. His next three worst finishes (8th, 13th & 13th) are all within 6 spots of his MEDIAN finish. Just looking at all 14 Daytona International race finishes for ‘Little E’, you can see that his three bad finishes (29th, 35th & 36th) are going to skew his overall results when looking at the AVERAGE.

It’s because of the unpredictability of a NASCAR race to result in a bad finish due to a wreck or mechanical problem that those outlying bad finishes can drastically change a drivers average.

Boris Said at Daytona

Think about a driver like Boris Said who currently has 3 Nextel Cup starts at Daytona. His finishes are 4th, 27th & 28th. Which appears more accurate?

• His AVERAGE finish of 20th (4 + 27 + 28)/3
• His MEDIAN finish of 27th (4, 27, 28)

I’m leaning toward the MEDIAN. Vital information for your fantasy race team when choosing who to run.

Wrapping Up

Once again, here is the definitions of MEAN and MEDIAN.

MEAN: The sum of a list of numbers, divided by the total number of numbers in the list.

MEDIAN: The ‘Middle Value’ of a list of numbers. If the list has an odd number of entries, the MEDIAN is the middle entry in the list after sorting the list into increasing order. If the list has an even number of entries, the MEDIAN is equal to the sum of the two middle (after sorting) numbers divided by two.

Alright. Now I’m a little confused. Maybe I just assumed the National Guard was no longer sponsoring Greg Biffle’s, Roush Racing, #16 ride because they decided to not sponsor a NASCAR car any longer.

I guess that’s not the case.

Turns out that The National Guard is now co-sponsoring (along with GMAC) the Rick Hendrick #25 car. Wonder if it has anything to do with Casey Mears’ buzzcut? He’ll make a fine representative for the National Guard. It would go even further if joined up with the National Guard and missed 2 races out of the year to fulfill his obligation. Wonder if Hendrick would still pay him his wages and secure his ride for him while he was gone?

And, my big wonder is what the thoughts are over at the Roush Racing camp? Surely there is already the insider knowledge as to the whole story. I’d like to hear it. I guess sometimes when your a snake your snakey karma can come back at ya a little faster than expected.

As a side note, The National Guard website (nor Circuit City’s) work in the Firefox browser. Their web design company should be fired.”

The actual qualifying speed is more likely to be in the mid to high 180’s as it has been for the past 5 years. That seems right around where NASCAR wants to keep it. It makes for good speculation as to how fast they could be going if left unrestricted. I’m not mechanically inclined at all, but logically there has to be some topping out point. Right? I mean going fast and turning left has it’s peak speed built in by virtue of the left-hand turn. There’s another series for go fast, go straight. My quick search shows John Force besting the NHRA at 333.58 mph.

In NASCAR’s first 18 years (1950 – 1967) of Spring races at Daytona International Speedway the pole speed went from 98.840 mph to 180.831 mph. That’s an average increase of 4.555 mph each year.

The next 20 years (1968 – 1987) of Spring races the pole speed increased from 189.222 mph to 210.364 mph. An average increase of 1.057 mph each year.

Where would we be 20 years later at the Spring race of 2007?

Even with an average yearly increase of 0.529 mph (half of the prior 20 year span) the pole speed for the ‘Daytona 500′ 2007 would be 220.944 mph.

Is that possible?

The restrictor information is from Jayski’s.

Oh happy days! Ricky Rudd aka “The Iron Man” is returning back to full-time Nextel Cup racing. Teaming up with the ailing Robert Yates Racing may not be the best ride in the garage, but certainly ought to be as good as his last ride.

I dug out my Ricky Rudd book (a Christmas present from years past) to read that it was 1981 that 24-year old Rudd was brought over to DiGard Racing by then lead engine builder Robert Yates to drive the #88 Gatorade Chevrolet.

Rudd started out in the Winston Cup Grand National Series at the age of 18. With just a few practice laps under his belt in a stock car he raced the Carolina 500 at ‘The Rock”, North Carolina Speedway. He finished 11th. The next week he raced the Southeastern 500 at Bristol. He finished 10th. Not bad for a kid that had been racing go-karts.

Ricky Rudd is a true racer in my book. Dubbed the ‘Iron Man’ for his 788 consecutive race starts. Newer fans may not know how he taped his eyes open with duct tape to run the Daytona 500 in February of 1984. A crazy, violent 7-flip wreck left him with banged up ribs and eyes so swollen and black they were shut.

So here is a special ‘off season’ post to Ricky Rudd, Rooster, The Iron Man…one of my favorite drivers. I’ve got high hopes for you old man! Show ‘em how it’s done.”

“Got the knack, desire, insight or gut to pick the correct race winner each week?

I’m re-working the Fantasy Racing Experts Picks section of the website and am looking for new faces to make their pick each week.

If your interested in participating for the 2007 NASCAR season shoot me an email: me[at]onebadwheel[dot]com

You’ll get your name and website address (if applicable) displayed along with all the bragging rights you can muster.”

“I finally was able to write a script to let you easily feed NASCAR Point Standings to your website or blog.

In my new section, Webmaster Tools, I’ve got the snippets of Javascript code for you to copy and paste onto your site. The current Point Standings feed will display at 180px wide, so should fit most websites or blogs sidebar.

I want to feed out some other data that I generate here as well. Any thoughts or comments on what you would like to use on your site…let me know.”