Autism Speaks 400

Back To The COT & Still The Same

After a crash filled race at Lowe’s Motor Speedway last week we head to Dover, Delaware and another COT race.

Jeff Gordon still has the series point lead by a comfortable 132 point margin over teammate, Jimmie Johnson, Michael Waltrip still hasn’t qualified for a race since the Daytona 500 and Mark Martin is only 31 points away from qualifying for the Chase after missing 3 races this season.

My Pick To Win Dover

I predict that this weekend will be the first COT race NOT won by a Hendrick Motorsports car.

I am going to pick Tony Stewart to break the streak at Dover this weekend. I am going to stretch it a little this week and say that with the COT Dover will run like a larger version of Bristol and Tony dominated there this year.

Frontrunners at Dover

So, Tony Stewart to win should mean that Denny Hamlin will have a great car this weekend also. Denny has been so close this year and hasn’t been able to seal the deal at the end of the race. This team has made a lot of changes with its pit crew recently in the hopes that they will not have a melt down late in the race.

Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch have done their job in all of the COT races this year and all should be strong again this weekend. Jimmie has 3 wins at Dover, Kyle has 3 top 5 finishes in 4 races here finishing 2nd in each of the first 2 races he ran but, Jeff Gordon has struggled recently at Dover. Jeff hasn’t won here since the spring of 2001 and has finished worse than 35th in 4 of his last 9 starts.

Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman have made dramatic gains in the COT races since Bristol. Ryan, like Jimmie Johnson has 3 wins at Dover in his 10-race career there. He has really looked good in recent weeks and could break out and surprise everyone this weekend. Kurt on the other hand only has 4 top 10 finishes at Dover and can’t seem to keep up with the track lately when making changes as the race goes on. This team could possibly make a crew chief change in the near future.

Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle have both won at Dover while their teammate, Carl Edwards finished 2nd here last fall. The Roush teams have seem to gained anything on the COT’s since opening up with decent cars at Bristol. Their cars are still good but haven’t been good enough to seriously compete for a win.

Mark Martin was going to be my pick this weekend before I found out it was going to be a COT race. Mark has been unbelievable all year in the old car but has struggled in the races he has run the COT. I still won’t put anything past him. Mark also announced last week that he will be the standby driver for Jeff Gordon in a few weeks if Jeff has to miss a race to be with his wife when she delivers the couple’s first child.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has also won at Dover but hasn’t done that well there since then. DEI is close on the Cot but like Roush Racing hasn’t made the significant improvement needed to compete with the Hendrick cars yet.

Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton have also done well in the COT races. Jeff won at Dover for his first win at RCR last year. If Dover does run like a larger Bristol this weekend, Jeff should be right there at the end. He just lost to Kyle Busch at Bristol this spring. Kevin Harvick also started at the back of the pack at Bristol and quickly made his way to the front. I think that both of these guys have a legitimate shot at visiting victory lane once again this weekend.

Yahoo! Fantasy Picks

Group A

• Tony Stewart (starter)
• Jeff Gordon

Group B

• Kyle Busch (starter)
• Ryan Newman (starter)
• Mark Martin
• Denny Hamlin

Group C

• Jeff Green (starter)
• Tony Raines

Darkhorse

• Ryan Newman

Stay Away From

• Kasey Kahne

“

Coca-Cola 600

Ho Hum All-Star Challenge

I have come to the conclusion that NASCAR needs to change the format of the All-Star Challenge. I was literally bored with the whole thing on Saturday night as were all of the people watching with me. They need to make it more of a race than 20 lap segments.

The only exciting thing that happened all night was the Busch brothers getting together and eliminating themselves from contention. I wish Kyle had talked to the media. That way we might have had a lot of excitement.

My Pick To Win Lowe’s Motor Speedway

This weekend the circuit heads back to Charlotte for the running of the Coca-Cola 600. Everyone is going to pick Jimmie Johnson to win this weekend and he probably will. He has won 5 of the last 8 races at Charlotte and finished 2nd to Kasey Kahne in both of the races last season. Kasey hasn’t had a good run at all this year so Jimmie shouldn’t have to worry about him.

The way the NEXTEL Open started on Saturday night the two main concerns this weekend will be tires and of course engine failures. A lot of cars got loose in the Open when they tried to make passes on the inside. Good Year might decide to bring a different tire combination for this weekend’s race to try and curtail the problems from Saturday night. And with this being the longest race of the year I expect to see a lot of blown engines as we get over the 400 and especially the 500-mile point this weekend.

Frontrunners at Lowe’s

Kevin Harvick won the All-Star Challenge and I congratulate him on this accomplishment. Now, can Kevin turn his good fortune into another good run this weekend? Kevin hasn’t had a top 10 run in the 600 since his first start here in 2001 and has had only 3 top 10 finishes in the 12 points races he has run at Charlotte. That leads me to question whether this team can keep up with the changing conditions during the race.

Jeff Gordon had a great car for most of the night Saturday until he ran over some debris and never seemed to have the same car after that. Jeff has only 1 top 10 finish in the last 3 years at Charlotte and most of his other finishes have been worse than 30th during that time. Right now Jeff has the utmost confidence in his team and that goes a long way during a race of this length. Anyone can start out with an ill handling car but they will have all night to get the car dialed in and get back to the front and contend for the win this weekend.

Matt Kenseth is another driver who had a great car all night on Saturday but he got caught speeding on pit road virtually ending his chances at the $1 million first prize. Matt hasn’t won here since the 2000 season but has finished very well in most of the races. If anyone is going to give Jimmie a run for his money this weekend, Matt might be the guy to do it.

Mark Martin quietly put himself in a position to win the All Star Challenge but came up a bit short. He always seems to run well in the 600 and it is because he is so patient. He stays out of trouble early in the race and just keeps adjusting on his car until he has it the way he wants it at the end of the race. With a Hendrick engine this year he might return to victory lane at the track he won the No Bull Million in 2002.

Tony Stewart is another driver who usually runs well at Charlotte. He has struggles a bit in the last few years and some of it might be apprehension from a few crashes he had doing tire testing for Good Year back in 2005. He and Greg Biffle both had hard crashes during the tire test, which made NASCAR go to a smaller fuel cell for the race and had Humpy Wheeler repave the track after the race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. struggled most of the night Saturday but still came away with a top 10 finish. This might be the race that either propels Junior to the Chase or turns his season into another struggle. I think he will persevere this weekend and come away with another good finish and help his chances for the Chase.

Kurt Busch made a lot of adjustments to his car Saturday and really had it handling well before he got tangles up with his little brother during the last segment of the All-Star Challenge. If Kurt doesn’t have engine or mechanical problems this weekend he could compete for the win. This team is so close to breaking out that it could come at anytime.

Be Ready For Thursday Qualifying!

A few final notes before I give you my picks for this week. First, qualifying is on Thursday. So, make sure you get all of your picks submitted on time this week for any league that you are in that has to have the picks submitted before qualifying. Second, Bill Elliott has come out of retirement to run the next 6 races for the Wood Brothers. Bill will be the latest past champion not in the top 35 in owner points. This will guarantee the #21 car of making the next 6 races, which also means that there will be one less spot for the remainder of the drivers to get to make the race. This is not good for Michael Waltrip Racing.

Yahoo! Fantasy Picks

Group A

• Jimmie Johnson (starter)
• Jeff Gordon

Group B

• Kurt Busch (starter)
• Mark Martin (starter)
• Scott Riggs
• Denny Hamlin

Group C

• Johnny Sauter (starter)
• David Ragan

“

While we are very disappointed (that’s an understatment) that Dale Jr. (our cash cow and major source of income beyond whoring out the Dale Earnhardt Brand™ for highest dollar) has chosen to leave the family business (yes, that’s right. He is abandoning his family. He is disgracing the Earnhardt Brand™ name and spitting on the company his father and I built. I may only be his step-mother, but I have the distinction of being the third and longest lasting wife of Dale Earnhardt. I went to these friggin’ races every weekend for too long not to have my big payoff), we remain excited about our company’s future (opportunity to run in the back of the pack along side the other mighty but fallen teams of Robert Yates and the Wood Brothers). Our aggressive expansion (boy howdy, will there be a lot of vacated positions to fill) and diversification (that’s right…we are into diversification. Di-verse-e-fee-k-shun. DEI invented diversification. Look at our diverse income streams through 6 years of Dale Earnhardt merchandise sales and playing on the emotions and loyalty of Dale’s fans. We’ve diversified the number of cars we run and even diversify our drivers every couple of years. We hired Max Siegel. If that’s not diverse, I don’t know what is!) plans have not changed. This company has continued to thrive (solely on the marketability of Dale Sr. merchandise and his wildly popular son Dale Earnhardt Jr.) since Dale left us in 2001, and it will thrive (as a museum) following today’s announcement. Dale and I (yes I, Theresa Houston-EARNHARDT, the third wife and Official Widow™ of Dale Earnhardt) built this company to be a championship-contender, and those principles still apply. Dale Earnhardt, Inc. will win, and we have (one) other extremely talented drivers and hundreds of employees that are dedicated (but will probably also jump ship) to the programs we founded. This company has a great legacy and a bright future, built on loyalty, integrity, and commitment (there, I started with a dig on Dale Jr and I end with one).

Last Race of Segment 1

It’s the last week of segment 1 for ESPN’s Stock Car Challenge fantasy NASCAR game. The drivers you have on your team now will be gone after the Darlington race. Your best strategy for this week, if you don’t have Jeff Gordon or Jimmie Johnson locked in at a low rate, is to pick up a solid low-tier driver so you can spend big on the top-tiers.

Top-Tier Driver Bargains

Top performing drivers at a bargain price.

• Jeff Burton: Jeff’s engine woes at Richmond knocked his stock price down by .5 points to a 22.7 this week. He’s priced higher than the 21.0 that he started the year at but if you have the money to get him for just this week it might be a good choice. Jeff Burton’s average finish over the last 18 races at Darlington is 10th. Plus, he’s won here before.
• Greg Biffle: Greg dropped a modest .1 this week to 21.1. That’s still .8 lower than you could have got him at the beginning of the year. Biffle is the defending winner at Darlington, sweeping the races there last year. His COT looked good at Richmond until Jeff Green knocked him around. Biffle might be a good top-tier, low priced driver for this final segment.

Middle-Tier Drivers

Once again, since this is the final race of the segment, you want the best drivers you can get. Pick up a solid low-tier performer that will get you a top 25 and use your money on the top-tier boys. If you must pick from this middle-tier here’s my suggestion.

• Reed Sorenson: Reed finished 11th at his one race at Darlington. If he can pull that off again, he’s like a 100 shares of Google stock pre-IPO. His current price of 17.5.
• Jeff Green: Jeff looked really bad at Richmond, but overall he has performed quite well with the COT. At 17.0 he’s not a bad priced middle-tier driver.
• Sterling Marlin: Marlin has looked good at times with the COT. His average finish in the last 18 races at Darlington is 21st. He’s priced at a mid-range 16.7. He might serve you well this week if you have no better choice.

Worthwhile Bottom-Tier Drivers

To be able to afford the best drivers for this final race of segment 1, you need a low-tier driver that will at least finish the race top 30 and bring you home some points.

I think your best bet is Ken Schrader at 15.5 (if he can qualify in). He has an average 20th over the last 18 Darlington races. Kenny Wallace is going for 14.1 and averages 25th over his last 14 races at Darlington. Or even, David Reutimann is going for the basement price of 11.8. He ought to get some good practice in the Busch race for his Nextel Cup debut at Darlington.

Good Luck!

Dodge Avenger 500

Will Hendrick Dominance End At Darlington?

This weekend we head to Darlington and another Saturday night race with the COT. So far this year Hendrick Motorsports has won all 4 COT races and Chevy has led an astounding 96.6% of the laps run in these races.

Will another owner break this streak this weekend? I’m betting not because 2 of the most consistent drivers at Darlington are Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon.

My Pick to Win Darlington

Out of these 2 drivers I am going to go with Jeff Gordon for the win again because he has had the best finishing average in the COT races. He has finished in the top 5 in all 4 of these races so far this year. Jimmie Johnson won both of the races at Darlington in 2004 and has finished out of the top 10 only once in his career there.

Darlington Frontrunners

Greg Biffle has won the last 2 Darlington races and has had a pretty decent Cot this season. However, it still looks like the Hendrick cars are a step ahead of everyone else. I still look for Greg to have another top 10 car here and maybe he can pull out the victory.

Denny Hamlin finished 10th in his only Cup race at the track and has had a great COT this season. He has the 4th most points in the COT races this year which is tops among non-Hendrick drivers. Tony Stewart has also had a good COT this season and would love to visit victory lane in one of them and break the Hendrick streak.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has also been close with the COT and has run well at Darlington lately. DEI like most teams need just a little more time with the COT before they can keep up with the changes they need to make to the car during the race and stay on top of their game.

Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards are in the top 10 in points in the COT races also and have been good at Darlington, just not as good as their teammate, Greg Biffle. Carl qualified 2nd at Richmond but then his car slid back after a couple of laps and he never did get the handle right on it so that he could move back towards the leaders.

Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer have had great handling COT’s this year. Kevin has come from the back of the pack to the front in a hurry in several of these Cot races just to have something break or trouble in the pits. Jeff Burton lost an engine early last week at Richmond and Clint has been steady in these cars. I believe that one of the RCR cars will break the Hendrick streak in the COT races eventually this season.

Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman have made big strides for Penske racing since the COT debuted at Bristol this spring. Kurt is a little ahead of Ryan right now but Ryan showed that he isn’t afraid to mix it up with the likes of Tony Stewart last weekend at Richmond and has a car capable of competing.

Mark Martin has struggled a bit with the COT this year but still sits 14th in the standings, only 80 points out of the 12th spot in the Chase. This after missing 3 races already this year. Mark has run well at Darlington lately but needs to get his car a lot better before he can compete for a win in a COT.

This Saturday night we will see who the track labeled Too Tough To Tame will end up visiting victory lane. The weather forecast as of this Monday morning calls for a 30% chance of rain next weekend in Darlington. I hope that the rain holds off and they can race Saturday night so everyone can spend Mother’s day with the moms in their lives.

Yahoo! Fantasy Picks

Group A

• Jeff Gordon (starter)
• Jimmie Johnson

Group B

• Kurt Busch (starter)
• Ryan Newman (starter)
• Scott Riggs
• Denny Hamlin

Group C

• Jeff Green (starter)
• Tony Raines

Dark Horse

• Martin Truex Jr

Stay Away From

• Elliott Sadler

“

Fantasy racing advice for your ESPN Stockcar Challenge team.

Top-tier Driver Bargains

Just like a great stock at a low price, this week we find some great drivers at their lowest value of the season.

• Tony Stewart: Tony started the year out valued at 23.5, the same price he is going for right now. Unless you want to take a chance he will crap out at Richmond, you might want to find a way to fit him on your team.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Although Juniors value went up .2 this week, you can still catch him on the tail-end of being a bargain. Junior started out the year at a high value of 22.6. His current value of 22.2 is a great rate that is sure to keep rising as the season progresses.
• Kyle Busch: Shrub has been the victim of bad luck city this year. It’s gotta change, right? He’s had awesome cars. His drop of .5 is the biggest drop of the top-tier drivers and puts him at a solid 22.0. He started the year at 21.8, so if your feeling a little risky (and thinking maybe his horrible luck will subside) he is definitely a bargain to become a valuable driver on your team. His average Richmond finish is 4th!
• Carl Edwards: Carl is a risky stock. It’s been so long since he has consistently performed well. He was valued at 22.1 at the beginning of the season. His current 21.8 is lower, and may be a bargain, but he is risky.
• Greg Biffle: The Biff is another Roush driver that has great potential, yet little results to show for it. His stock value at the beginning of the season was 21.9, so his current value of 21.2 is a deep discount. Buy at your own risk.

Middle-Tier Drivers

There are a few drivers in the middle-tier that are still priced low, but higher than at the start of the season. If you want them, you better get them now.

• JJ Yeley: Yeley’s value has shot up .5 so far this year. Not a bad return. He is continuing to rise, but for a 17.0ish range driver, he has scored more points than any driver around him.
• Tony Raines: Raines has increased the most in value of this mid-tier group since the beginning of the season. A whopping .6 so far. His 849 total points this year averages out to a solid 94 points a race.
• Jeff Green: Jeff is creeping up in value as well. He’s increased by .3 so far this season. Like Yeley and Raines, he is a high points scorer for his value.

Worthwhile Bottom-Tier Drivers

To be able to afford at least 2 of the top-tier drivers, you gotta have a low-priced bargain driver. Someone you hope can net you a few solid points each week.

With the number of drivers outside the top-35 that are in this group, I think your best bet is David Ragan at 14.6. He is averaging a very respectable 88.0 points a race. He’s increased .9 since the beginning of the season. Unless you want to juggle drivers that don’t qualify, Ragan is the way to go.