Lifelock 400

Chase Is Tight Going To Kansas

I missed the race at Dover due to work and had to watch the highlights (or lowlights if you will) of the race. It looks like a lot of the Chase participants had a lot of bad luck during the race, but it sure did tighten up the Chase.

Carl Edwards won the race but failed post race inspection and will likely get a fine and be docked 25 points. Even with that he will only be 28 points out of first. That will leave 8 drivers within 75 points of Jeff Gordon with 8 races left in the Chase. The real wildcard is going to be Talladega where they will use the COT for the first time in a restrictor plate race.

Kansas Cookie Cutter

This week the Chase heads to Kansas which is a “cookie cutter” track. This means it is a one and a half mile D-shaped oval that is very similar to tracks like Chicagoland and Las Vegas to name a few.

My Pick To Win Kansas

My pick to win this weekend is Carl Edwards. Carl is one of the hottest drivers on the circuit right now and will continue to fight for his first championship. Kansas Speedway is built for the way the Roush/Fenway teams build their cars. The Roush cars finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th here in 2005 with Mark Martin leading the way to the checkered flag.

Kansas Front Runners

Greg Biffle finished 2nd at Dover and has a 2nd and 3rd place finish in his last 3 starts at Kansas. This team struggles early in the year and never makes the Chase but gets things together during the Chase every year.

Matt Kenseth has had a lot of bad luck at Kansas over the 6 years that the track has been in business. Matt best finish at Kansas is 5th and if anyone should run well here it is him. Matt excels on these “cookie cutter” tracks and could come away with a dominating win here this weekend.

Tony Stewart won the race here last year and won the race at Chicagoland this year. Tony is right where he wants to be at this point of the season sitting in 2nd place only 2 points behind Jeff Gordon. This is the race that could propel him to the top of the charts.

Jeff Gordon won the first 2 Cup races ever run at Kansas at won at Chicagoland last season. Jeff has 4 top 10 finishes in the 6 races he has run at Kansas. He finished 39th here last year after losing a fuel pump with about 30 laps to go.

Jimmie Johnson is another driver who excels at these types of tracks. Jimmie has 3 top 10 finishes in 5 races here with a best finish of 6th. It wouldn’t surprise me any if Jimmie came away with his first victory here this weekend.

Yahoo! Fantasy Picks

Group A

• Carl Edwards (starter)
• Jimmy Johnson

Group B

• Casey Mears (starter)
• Clint Bowyer (starter)
• Kurt Busch
• Ryan Newman

Group C

• David Ragan (starter)
• Reed Sorenson

“

Dodge Dealers 400

Chaser’s Finish Up Front

The race for the Chase has started and just as I expected, the majority of the contenders did well at Loudon last weekend. Chasers filled the top 7 spots while 5 of the other drivers experienced some sort of problems from engine woes to flat tires and ill handling cars.

One Mulligan In The Books

Kurt Busch took the biggest hit to start the Chase when he lost a cylinder early in the race and never recovered. However, it could have been worse, because every single driver finished the race. If Kurt had lost the engine he would have finished dead last. Now he sits 102 points out of the lead and that hasn’t eliminated him from the Chase. He has basically already used up his poor race and has to run 9 strong ones from here on out to have a chance.

The Only Chaser Who Hasn’t Won A Race

Congratulations to Clint Bowyer on getting his first ever NEXTEL Cup victory and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Clint moved up 8 spots in the standings and is only 15 points out of the lead. Last week I said that all of the Chase drivers could finish in the top 20 at Loudon and 11 of them did with the exception of Kurt Busch. This just shows you that these are the 12 drivers that deserve a shot at the championship this year.

Chaser’s Looking Good…Again

This week we head to Dover for round 2 of the Chase and once again all of your Chase drivers are very good here. Chasers have won 9 of the last 15 races at Dover while the drivers sitting just out of the Chase, Ryan Newman and Dale Earnhardt Jr., adding another 4 victories during that stretch. That makes 13 of 15 wins for the drivers in the top 14 in points right now.

My Pick To Win Dover

Jimmie Johnson has 3 wins and 8 top 10 finishes in 11 starts at Dover so by virtue of being the best here over the last 4 years I am picking him to win this week once again. Jimmie has more wins here than any other Chase driver over the last 5 years. The only other driver with 3 wins here over that stretch is Ryan Newman.

Dover Front Runners

Carl Edwards has been very good here in his last 2 races. Carl has finished 2nd and 3rd in his last 2 starts here and seems to have a handle on this type of track right now. Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle have both been very good at Dover throughout their careers also with both of them having a win at this track.

Jeff Gordon has his good races and his bad races at Dover. This is going to be one of the races that he needs to have a good finish. Jeff has 5 top 10 finishes in his last 10 starts at Dover but he has also finished in the 30’s 4 of those races. Jeff needs to avoid any problems that will put him back in the pack this weekend.

Kyle Busch is another Hendrick driver who excels at Dover. Kyle finished 2nd in his first 2 starts here and then finished 5th before falling back the last 2 races here with finishes of 40th and 17th. If Kyle has any chance of winning the Chase this year he is going to need to be patient and not push the issue on the track. If he remembers that he doesn’t really need to race everybody until the last 100 miles of a race he will have a great shot at winning the whole thing.

From 2000-2004, Tony Stewart dominated at Dover. Tony swept the races here in 2000 and then had 9 top 10 finishes in 10 races with 7 of these being top 5 finishes. Since 2004 though, Tony has dropped back a bit. His finishes since them and in this order are 15th, 18th, 25th, 33rd and 40th.

Martin Truex Jr. won here this spring and started the Chase off with a top 5 finish at Loudon last week. After finishing 22nd in his first start at Dover Martin has finished 6th and 1st in his only other starts here. If this team can stay away from the engine woes that have haunted Dale Earnhardt Jr. this year he could repeat this weekend.

Jeff Burton got his first victory here for RCR last fall during the Chase and needs to get back in the swing of things this weekend after finishing 18th last weekend at Dover. Likewise, Kevin Harvick, who finished 17th last weekend, needs to come out firing on all cylinders to start to creep back into the hunt.

Denny Hamlin has finished 11th, 9th and 4th in his 3 Cup starts at Dover. Denny has been calm, cool and collected over the past 2 seasons no matter what he has to deal with. One of the only times he seemed to lose his cool a little bit was when his teammate, Tony Stewart, took him out and blamed it on him.

Kurt Busch has struggled at Dover throughout his career and was parked by NASCAR this spring after intentionally hitting Tony Stewart on pit road after the 2 of them were involved in a racing incident on the track. Kurt only has 4 top 10 finishes at Dover over his career with a best finish of 4th last fall.

Clint Bowyer has finished 17th, 8th and 8th in his 3 starts at Dover and has a lot of confidence right now after getting his first win in dominating fashion last weekend. This whole team is on a high right now and we will see if they can carry this momentum into next weekend.

Yahoo! Fantasy Picks

Group A

• Carl Edwards (starter)
• Jimmy Johnson

Group B

• Ryan Newman (starter)
• Martin Truex Jr (starter)
• Kurt Busch
• Denny Hamlin

Group C

• David Ragan (starter)
• Reed Sorenson

Dark Horse

• Ryan Newman

Stay Away From

• Clint Bowyer

“

Something a little different this week in the Stats Analysis section. Our statistics guru, Steve McClearn, has been slaving away in the corporate world, so we’ve given the stats analysis to our resident orangutans.

Looking at most people’s favorite statistic, Best Drivers by Track, we’ve taken it a step further. Let’s get each driver’s median finish at not only Dover, but tracks which are similar to Dover. These are: Bristol, Miami-Homestead, Las Vegas, & Darlington.

Now, let’s combine those median finishes and average them to see who ranks the best. That’s what we have here:

Sylvania 300

Johnson Defends His Title

Jimmie Johnson will begin defending his NASCAR championship this weekend at New Hampshire International Speedway in the familiar top spot. Jimmie will start 20 points ahead of teammate, Jeff Gordon, by virtue of his series leading 6 wins. The only driver in the Chase who hasn’t won a race yet this season is Clint Bowyer, thus he will start 60 points behind Jimmie in 12th place in the standings.

Hendrick Motorsports and Richard Childress Racing will each have 3 contenders in the Chase while Roush/Fenway Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing will each have 2 drivers in the field. Penske Racing and Dale Earnhardt Inc. will each have a single driver in the Chase. I predict that the Chase will come down to the final race at Homestead-Miami and it will be a battle between Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart for the championship. Right now I have to give the edge to Jimmie because his team is on top of their game right now and has all the momentum on their side.

My Pick To Win Loudon

So, for this week at Loudon I am picking Jimmie Johnson to win his 3rd straight race and put pressure on the rest of the Chase field right from the start. However I don’t think that this will knock anyone out of contention because just about every Chase driver runs well at Loudon and all could find themselves within the top 20 at the end of the race. 10 of the 12 Chase drivers finished in the top 13 in the spring race here.

New Hampshire Front Runners

Denny Hamlin should be battling up front most of the day. Denny won the race this spring and has finished 4th and 6th in his only other Cup starts here. Denny excels on the flatter tracks and hasn’t shown any signs of being fazed by pressure in either of his Cup seasons.

Jeff Gordon finished 2nd to Denny this spring but he hasn’t run consistently well at Loudon lately. Jeff only has 4 top 10 finishes in his last 12 starts here and hasn’t won at this track in a long time. However, Jeff had never won at Phoenix until this year on a very similar track and excels at Martinsville, which is also close to the same configuration.

Tony Stewart won here in the spring of 2005 and has finished 2nd the last 2 fall races here. Tony will definitely turn it up a notch heading into the Chase and is very capable of reeling off multiple wins in a row, as can Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon.

Matt Kenseth is one of the most consistent drivers at Loudon and had finished in the top 10 in 9 of his last 10 starts here. However the best he has finished in that stretch was 2nd one time. Matt has quietly had a great season so far and this team is capable of putting together a consistent Chase and winning the whole thing.

Kevin Harvick won last fall and his teammate, Jeff Burton, has done well here recently also. Both of these drivers have 4 straight top 10 finishes here and are both capable of coming away with the win this weekend.

The Busch brothers have both won here in the past. Kurt Busch swept the races here in 2004 while Kyle Busch got a win here in the spring of 2006. They are probably 2 of the most aggressive drivers that are in the Chase and if things go their way they could put on a 10-race domination like Kurt did during the first year of the Chase.

Yahoo! Fantasy Picks

Group A

• Jeff Gordon (starter)
• Jimmy Johnson

Group B

• Denny Hamlin (starter)
• Martin Truex Jr (starter)
• Kurt Busch
• Ryan Newman

Group C

• Johnny Sauter (starter)
• David Ragan

Stay Away From

• Clint Bowyer

Dark Horse

• Ryan Newman

“

“If it wasn’t unofficial, I’d call it official. Mark Martin would have made the Chase For The Nextel Cup.

I’ve been tracking Mark Martin’s race results through the year under 3 scenarios.

• 1) Mark Martin’s actual race points and position in the NASCAR point standings. Officially, Mark is currently 24th.
• 2) Mark Martin’s actual race points PLUS giving him 34 points, which is the MINIMUM race points possible, for the races he skipped. Under this scenario, Mark Martin would be in 18th place in the NASCAR standings.
• 3) Mark Martin’s actual race points PLUS adding in Mark Martin’s AVERAGE race points at the track’s he skipped. Under this scenario, Mark Martin would have ended the first 26 races with 3349 points. Putting him in 7th place in the standings.

This would have knocked Kevin Harvick out of the Chase by 5 points to Martin Truex Jr. And, Mark would be seeded in 11th place in the Chase For The Nextel Cup with 5000 points. I’ll continue tracking Mark Martin’s “What If” Points for the next 10 races to see where he might have finished the year.

Now that the Chase is on, you can also follow along with the NASCAR Points Standings under the Non-Chase method. Where Jeff Gordon currently has a 312 point lead.”

Chevy Rock N Roll 400

The Last Race Before the Chase

This is it. The last race before the Chase for the NEXTEL Cup begins. I’m sticking with my prediction from last week that the field is set and Dale Earnhardt Jr. will not make the Chase. Sorry Bud fans, it’s just not going to happen this year.

Other notes of interest heading into the weekend. It looks like Joe Gibbs Racing will be driving Toyotas next year, J.J. Yeley will be piloting the #96 Hall of Fame Racing entry next season and Kenny Wallace will be driving the #88 for Robert Yates racing also. Casey Mears will switch to the #5 car with Kellogg’s and CarQuest as sponsors and Mark Martin will be sharing the #8 with Aric Almirola for DEI.

My Pick To Win Richmond

This week I am picking Kyle Busch to win another race for Hendrick Motorsports heading into the Chase. Kyle has never finished worse than 5th in 5 races at Richmond and has come home a bridesmaid in the last 2. This week he will get another 10 bonus points heading into the Chase.

Richmond Front Runners

Denny Hamlin will be looking to get his early season momentum back this weekend also. Denny has had some bad luck lately and needs to get it turned around right now. He has a 2nd and 3rd place finish at Richmond in only 3 starts and loves to run on the short flat tracks.

Just because I said Dale Earnhardt Jr. won’t make the Chase doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have a chance to win this weekend. Dale has always been very good at Richmond. He has 7 top 5 finishes in his last 15 starts at Richmond including 3 wins. Look for him to pull out all the stops to try and make the Chase.

Kevin Harvick is 128 points ahead of Dale Jr. heading into this week’s race. Kevin won this race last year heading into the Chase and has 5 straight top 10 finishes at Richmond. This is one of the reasons that Junior won’t make the Chase even if he does manage to win.

Jimmie Johnson won here in the spring and has the most wins of any driver right now with 5 on the season. Jimmie will do everything he can to win once again this weekend and add a little cushion in his bid to repeat as NEXTEL Cup Champion.

On the other hand, Jeff Gordon is going to do everything he can do to win his 5th race of the season and head into the chase in a virtual tie with Jimmie. Jeff finished 4th this spring at Richmond but has struggled the last few seasons here. He has not finished better that 30th in the last 2 seasons at Richmond.

Tony Stewart would like to get himself a 4th win this weekend and pull a bit closer to Jimmie. Tony has finished in the top 10 in 5 of his last 7 starts at Richmond and has wins in the spring of 2001 and 2002. All of the drivers locked into the Chase are going to be going all out to try and get that final win and 10 bonus points during the last race before the Chase.

Yahoo! Fantasy Picks

Group A

• Dale Earnhardt Jr (starter)
• Jimmy Johnson

Group B

• Kyle Busch (starter)
• Denny Hamlin (starter)
• Kurt Busch
• Ryan Newman

Group C

• Johnny Sauter (starter)
• JJ Yeley

Dark Horse

• Greg Biffle

Stay Away From

• Jeff Gordon

“