Don’t listen to DW, Jimmie Johnson doesn’t not have to worry about Homestead. Darrell Waltrip says Sunday’s race is filled with dangers for the #48 team and it’s the race of their lives. The reality is the only thing that will doom Johnson is an early wreck or an engine failure. A mistake on pit road or coming in for a flat tire are not going to relegate Johnson to a 36th place finish. Practice doesn’t matter, qualifying doesn’t matter (although another pole for Johnson would likely grant another 5 points), emotions don’t matter, the only thing that matters is finishing the race. In the nine previous Homestead races, the 36th place car has never finished better than three laps down. In many cases the 36th place car finished more than 20 laps behind the leaders. With one of the most thorough, no-stone-unturned crew chief in Chad Knaus inspecting the car, it’s a safe bet that the #48 will not have a sour engine and won’t suffer a parts failure. Anyone that tells you otherwise is either trying to create drama that isn’t there or hasn’t been watching the Lowe’s car for the last five years. They rarely beat themselves.

What Happened Last Year

With the points battle essentially settled, Jimmie Johnson took it easy all afternoon to avoid trouble. Taking it easy for teh #48 team meant a 7th place finish. That opened the door for someone else to win. Matt Kenseth stomped the field to win his second race of the season. He led 214 of 267 laps and easily held off Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin.

Other Thoughts and Notes

• Red Bull is switching their drivers for the final race. Because of the owners points situation Scott Speed will drive the #83, which is safely in the top 35 and Brian Vickers will try to pass the #47 team for 35th place in the owners points. What happens if Vickers can’t qualify the #84? Will Speed still drive Vickers’ normal car? Also, where was I when JTG-Daugherty Racing acquired the #00’s owners points? That’s a brilliant move if Marcos Ambrose can stay inside the top 35. I think Ambrose and the #47 team could be a nice surprise in 2009. If Boris Said can’t get a full time ride, Ambrose might be the next best thing.

• Furniture Row Racing is cutting back to a part time schedule next year. Economic downturn and all that jazz. It’s really a shame because they had a really nice year for a one car team. They qualified not one, but two teams for the Daytona 500, Joe Nemechek won the pole at Talladega and registered three top 20’s. Nemechek has always overachieved a little given his equipment and it’s really a shame that he can’t find a better ride. I’m pretty sure he would have done better more than several drivers that had fulltime rides this year.

• Gillett-Evernham have landed sponsorship for Reed Sorenson’s ride next year. Air Force, which always features the coolest, yet cleanest, paint schemes will adorn the #10 car next year. Remember two or three years ago when companies were tripping over each other to get into NASCAR sponsorship? Now it’s a case of the top teams (Hendrick, Gibbs, Roush, RCR and Evernham) pulling traditional NASCAR sponsors away from other struggling teams. It’s not a new concept in racing, but it once again illustrates how rapidly things have changed in NASCAR. As an aside, is it a good idea for the Air Force to sponsor someone who crashes at high speeds on a regular basis? I’m sure they did their due diligence.

Who Will Win?

I’ve seen multiple people say that Jeff Gordon will win this week. Aside from the fact that he’s 0-35 this year, what reason does he have a chance? The #24’s speedway program is wildly inconsistent. Others look to the Roush stable, which makes a ton of sense since they’ve accounted for the last four winners and 9 top 5’s in the last four years. That includes a 1-2-3-4 finish in 2005. I’m tempted to say David Ragan, but we’ll save that pick for next year. For now, I’m going to go with Dale Earnhardt Jr. It’s crazy, it’s flying in the face of reason, but in a year of struggles for the sport, imagine the unfettered hope a Jr win would bring to the cold winter months. Enjoy the race.

Dale Earnhardt Incorporated and Chip Ganassi Felix Sabates Racing announced they are combining teams in 2009.

Obviously, it is almost a necessity for two teams both struggling to keep logos on the doors and cars on the track. You still hoped that DEI had learned their lesson: combining spare parts does not ensure a complete package.

In August of 2007 DEI essentially absorbed the fledgling Ginn Racing when cash got tight. The result was a team that grew from 2 solid teams (#1 Martin Truex Jr, #8 Dale Earnhardt Jr) and one struggling team (#15) to four full-time teams with solid sponsorship.

Of course, one of the 4 cars was the #8 Budweiser car driven by Dale Earnhardt Jr. Both sponsor and driver left after the season and DEI failed to adequately replace either.

Mark Martin and US Army plus owners points for Paul Menard and a new shop were nice acquisitions from Ginn, but now just over a year later, the only things left are basically Aric Almirola and a bigger shop.

Martin, Menard, and both sponsors are leaving at the end of 2008. Not only that, but the on-track performance has dropped significantly. Barring a surprise this weekend, DEI will not win a Cup race for the first time since 1999. Plus, no driver made the Chase.

Enter another struggling multi-car team with impressive resources like an engine department, a solid driver development program, solid sponsorship and a big shop, but a hollow on-track record.

In 2005 Ganassi had enough sponsors committed to his team that he was toying with the idea of expanding from a 3 car outfit to 4. Things didn’t quite work out, but with three fully sponsored cars, and young drivers like Casey Mears, Reed Sorenson and David Stremme things looked promising. That is until everyone realized that Ganassi’s cars didn’t really do very much on the track.

The teams won one race from 2003-2008, and that one race was a road course win for Juan Pablo Montoya.

Since 2005, the company has become a revolving door for drivers. Jamie McMurray and Sterling Marlin left after 2005 (actually to say Marlin left is a euphemism for being shoved out the door), Mears exited in 2006, Stremme in 2007, Dario Franchitti didn’t make it a full season in 2008 and Reed Sorenson will say goodbye to Ganassi after Homestead.

With sponsorship drying up for both DEI and Ganassi, they have decided to combine forces. The net result:

• Two legitimate Cup drivers
• One legitimate prospect
• Two-and-a-half sponsors
• Two big shops

Keep in mind that the two legitimate Cup drivers, Truex Jr and Montoya, could both leave after 2009. Both certainly deserve better than struggling with B-grade equipment.

Not only do the two team’s inventories and successes match each other, but their methods are often puzzling. Ganassi unceremoniously shoved Marlin into semi-retirement in 2005 and also tried to shuttle Mears into an unsecured ride where he’d have to make races on speed in favor of unproven rookie Reed Sorenson.

And everyone remembers Teresa Earnhardt’s famous quotes about her step son prior to last season.

All in all, the merger is a perfect match. Sadly that means instead of two floundering teams, we will now see one mega-floundering organization.”

Ford 400

With a 141-point lead, Jimmie Johnson is virtually a lock to win his 3rd straight NASCAR Sprint Cup title this weekend in Florida.

Carl Edwards can win the race and lead the most laps and get 195 points. If this happens and Johnson doesn’t lead a lap he needs to finish 36th or better.

Johnson will try to keep himself out of trouble for most of the day so don’t use him on your team this weekend.

My Pick To Win
I am going to pick Carl Edwards to win this week because I have seen him go all out during the Chase to try and reel in Johnson. Carl always runs really well at Homestead and has finished in the top 10 in the last 3 races here.

Homestead-Miami Speedway Frontrunners
Greg Biffle won 3 straight races at Homestead but faltered a bit last year after the track was reconfigured with the banking changing from the top to the bottom of the track. Greg should still be good here once again this weekend because this is a track built for Roush drivers.

Matt Kenseth won this race last year giving Jack Roush 4 straight victories to end the season, although he never got a championship during that time. Matt also has 3 straight top 10 finishes here and would really like to get his first victory of the year.

Jeff Gordon has finished in the top 10 here in 7 of the 9 Cup races run at the track. Jeff is also trying to break a non-winning streak of his own and get a win this year on a track that he has never won on.

Kevin Harvick is another driver who has only finished outside of the top 10 twice here in 7 races. Kevin has been very consistent most of the year but he hasn’t been able to make the right adjustment to get himself to victory lane and become a real threat for the championship.

Denny Hamlin has finished 3rd in his last 2 Homestead races and has been doing much better the last couple of weeks. Teams are all going to be doing a lot of testing this weekend for next year because Edwards and Johnson are the only ones left that can win the title.

With that being said I am going to cut it a bit short this week and give you my picks. Thank you all for sticking with me through the year and I will be back once again next season to help you in your fantasy quests!

Yahoo! Fantasy Picks

Group A

• Carl Edwards (starter)
• Denny Hamlin

Group B

• Greg Biffle (starter)
• Jamie McMurray (starter)
• Dale Earnhardt Jr
• Kyle Busch

Group C

• AJ Allmendinger (starter)
• Brian Vickers

Stay Away From

• Jimmie Johnson

Dark Horse

• David Ragan

“

Barring a complex kidnapping of Jimmie Johnson or a bizarre last minute rule change outlawing all silver and blue cars, the 2008 championship is already wrapped up for the #48 team. While it’s more of a blowout than past years, there hasn’t been a real surprise in the last four season finales. The points leader usually enters the race with a healthy lead and a Roush car wins the race. While that affects the interest level in the race, the truth is NASCAR fans are hard core. We will all watch every week no matter what. Here’s a few reasons to not only watch, but postpone that nap on the couch for a few hours after church.

1. History part 1. Jimmie Johnson will become the first driver since Cale Yarborough (1976-78) to win three straight Cup titles. That’s an incredible accomplishment especially when you consider how many more teams are capable of winning races in today’s NASCAR. In 1978 only seven drivers won a race. In 2008 12 drivers have taken the checkered flag.
2. History part 2. If Johnson somehow wins on Sunday he will join Kyle Busch(remember him?) and Carl Edwards with 8 wins this year. That has never happened in Cup since NASCAR went to a condensed schedule in 1972.
3. Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth are still looking for their first wins of the season. Kenseth has won at least one race in the last six seasons and won the Homestead event last year. Gordon last saw a goose egg in the win column in 1993, his rookie season. Coming off a ridiculous 2007 (6 wins, 21 top 5’s and a record 30 top 10’s), Gordon hasn’t figured out a way to lead late. In fact there aren’t even that many races to point to where Gordon deserved to win.
4. America’s Funniest Home Videos! So there’s this fat guy jumping on a diving board, and the diving board breaks and he falls into a pool! That’s killer.
5. Tony Stewart’s final ride with Joe Gibbs and Home Depot. 2 Championships, 33 wins and 356 starts for Stewart in the orange and white #20 car. It also breaks up the longest running driver-crew chief tandem in the sport. It was less surprising when Jr walked away from a struggling DEI team, but it’s still a little strange to think that Stewart is passing up a chance to compete for titles in the short term to go back a step with his own team.
6. Goodbye Big Three? Could it be possible that Chevy, Ford or Dodge may not be around come February? It sounds crazy, but if the companies are losing money it’s just as crazy to continue funding for motorsports. With one of the tightest manufacturers’ championships in recent years, it would be especially sad to see one or more of the American automakers not be around next year.
7. Brad Keselowski and Aric Almirola Just like September call ups in baseball, it’s time to take a look at the youngsters. Joey Logano isn’t entered, but Keselowski and Almirola have both already shown more on the track than Logano has. Not that Logano won’t be a star, but Keselowski and Almirola both look like they could compete for top 5’s and top 10’s with regular seat time.
8. Rusty Wallace I’ll tell you what, he thinks everyone is having a great race going and can see anyone winning this race. He will also tag someone for building momentum for next year. Right, because a top five in November will mean a great 2009.
9. Carl Edwards What if Edwards hadn’t caused a big wreck at Talladega? What if his crew and battery hadn’t gone south at Charlotte? If not for those two aberrations, Edwards would be entering Homestead as the favorite. During the Chase he has 7 finishes of 4th or better, including 2 wins, but it is still well short of what Jimmie Johnson has done.
10. John Madden will be there with his Turducken. No, not really. But how cool would it be if Madden stopped by with his magical, meaty bird of plenty? My family used to love watching Madden and Pat Sumerall on Thanksgiving just for all the talk about food and you could tell Madden was really passionate about it. I remember one year when he was doing Monday Night Football, they still brought him a Turducken and he circled all six legs and then karate-chopped into it with his bare hands.

“

“Veterans, we honor you.

Thank you for your service to our country.

• Military Heroes – Faces of Freedom Slideshow
• The History of Veterans Day.
• Celebrate Veterans Day With Your Children

“

For anyone watching Jimmie Johnson and the #48 team celebrate in Victory Lane at Phoenix, it looked a lot like a team celebrating a championship.

Everyone got soaked with Gatorade and took longer than usual to settle down. If the #48 knows it, then it’s really over.

Sure, Johnson has to avoid trouble and finish 36th or better but it’s basically academic at this point. No Chase driver has lost the point lead entering Homestead, and a 141 point lead should be enough for Johnson’s three-peat (copyright Pat Riley).

Maybe he could blow an engine on lap one, but do you really think that he won’t get the most reliable engine Hendrick Motorsports could possibly build? Even if things became dire, HMS will have three or possibly four other cars in the race that could be sacrificed if Johnson needed to pick up spots at the end of the race.

Carl Edwards can stay positive, charge hard and zzzzzz…It’s over.

Jimmie Johnson is the sport’s best driver on the best team and deserves his third straight championship.

For all of the talk about changes to the Chase format or complaints about Johnson making the show boring, it’s not Johnson’s fault. He goes for wins and races aggressively, but his only problem is that he’s too successful. He’s got some nerve racing for wins, and actually winning. In the last three Chases, he has eight wins and 15 top 2 finishes. If someone wants to complain about the Chase, how about finding fault with other teams or drivers before pointing the finger at Johnson and the #48 team?

Other Thoughts and Notes

• Switching away one of NASCAR’s most important races of the season for America’s Funniest Home Videos? What kind of a joke is that? I hope everyone on the East Coast has ESPN2 and that no one was recording the race to watch later. I guarantee you that ABC/ESPN would move the NFL, NBA or college football to another channel in favor of primetime programming. That is was America’s Funniest Home Videos is straight up appalling.
• Johnson is now in 15th place on the all time wins list. He has 40 wins in only seven years.
• How does AJ Allmendinger not have a job for 2009? In four mop-up races for Gillet-Evernham, he has finished 15th, 14th, 26th, and 16th. That’s better than GEM’s other high-profile drivers Kasey Kahne and Elliott Sadler. It’s also immensely better than GEM’s 2009 driver Reed Sorenson.
• Speaking of Sorenson, did anyone else notice the Amp logos on the rear quarterpanels? How does that work? Did the accountants at Amp discovered they had $65 left in the sponsorship budget after their commitments to the #88 with the hope that Sorenson would wreck? Well, Sorenson did wreck and finished in the 30’s for the 19th time this year. I don’t care how bad Ganassi cars are, I thought Sorenson was more talented than that.
• What was crazier, David Gilliland winding up on the hood of Scott Speed’s car, or Speed’s fragmented post-wreck explanation?
• Jamie McMurray is ending the season on a nice note with back to back 3rd place runs. I’m sure someone will point to it and say how he’s finally figuring things out and will build momentum for next season. Before you believe that, look at his stats for the last four years and you’ll see almost identical numbers.

“

The good folks that help promote the Shell brand have given us some ‘Americans for a Gunk Free Nation’ hats to give away to you.

The hats are signed by Kevin Harvick.

We are running this contest for four races: Atlanta, Texas, Phoenix & Homestead. The winners so far: Atlanta race, Texas race and Phoenix race.

This post represents the fourth week which is the Homestead-Miami race.

How To Enter
You enter the contest by posting your answer in the comments section below. Only comments posted prior to the start of the race (November 16, 2008 at 3:45 pm EST) are eligible.

How To Win
Answer this two-part question in the comments below.

1. What will Kevin Harvick’s finish position be for the Homestead-Miami race?
2. What will Kevin’s position be at the waving of the green flag after the very first yellow flag?

How Many Will Win?
The top two entries with the closest cumulative answer will each win a hat.

What I mean by that is we will count how many positions both of your picks are away from the actual answers. So, you could ‘blow it’ on Kevin’s finish position, but a close guess for his position at the waving of the green after the first yellow could be dead-on which would put you in the hunt.

In the event of a tie, I will use our random drawing method to determine who gets the hat.

“Here are the results for the third round of autographed Kevin Harvick “Gunk Free Nation” hats.

Remember, we were looking for the closest cumulative guess for Kevin’s position after the first yellow flag and his finish position.

This week there were no ties. We had clear cut winners for first and second place: Mike and Andrew R.

We’ve got one more week of free hats to give out.

1. He’s battling a Nicorette addiction.

2. Misunderstanding what “Drive for 5″ meant, Steve Letarte borrowed Casey Mears’ setups all year.

3. Law of averages. Gordon won 6 races and had 30 top 10’s in 2007. This year he’s simply returned to the pack.

4. Fumes from his Halston Z-14 cologne. Seriously, have you ever smelled that stuff?

5. Dupont used a lead-based paint scheme.

6. Kyle Busch stole his mojo.

7. Elliott Sadler swallowed Gordon’s lucky rabbit’s foot on a dare.

8. He hasn’t scuffled with Matt Kenseth yet. This also explains Kenseth’s blackout.

9. After 81 career wins, he doesn’t want to appear greedy.

10. Being in the #24 car is the only time he’s able to collect his thoughts and reflect on life.

“

In his short NASCAR career, Kyle Busch has won a ton of races and also rankled more than a few drivers, fans and even teammates. Many fans tend to overlook the immense talent and achievements and only focus on the negatives. It’s not a fair opinion, so hopefully Busch continues to do things like he did after his (tenth) Nationwide win last weekend. Here’s a few post-race quotes courtesy of Nationwide.

Kyle Busch won his second race of the year at the Texas Motor Speedway when he beat out Carl Edwards in Saturday’s O’Reilly Challenge.Yeah, he[Edwards] went a little bit higher than me and got some clean air on his car and really hustled that last lap. I was hustling for all I had — my tongue was hanging out today, I had my truck’s tongue hanging out last night I was pushing it for all it was worth, but you know that Nationwide car it had me driving my brains out there at the end. He was coming, and that was just a product of his four tires versus my two and being on them for 20 laps or whatever it was, you know, so probably one more lap and he would have had me. Luckily, it was only a 200-lapper today.

Saturday’s victory was the 10th on the year for Busch, tying the mark set by Sam Ard in 1983.
Yeah, this is a record-setting day for myself. And Sam Ard who’s at home in Florence, South Carolina, with his wife Jo and you know I want to say hi to him and of course you know we’re going to be sending him $100,000 his way to help him out a little bit. We know he’s going through health troubles and hopefully that’ll help bring a smile to his face.

To hear an audio version of this interview and more about the race at the Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, visit nationwide.com.“