This week the series heads to Texas for the first of its 2 races this season. Jimmie Johnson broke through last weekend with his first win of the year at a track he has dominated at the last few years. So, what does it look like this week?

• Matt Kenseth is my pick to win this week. Matt started out the season with 2 straight wins before riding the roller coaster to the bottom. Matt has really struggled the last 4 races but, at Texas he returns to his favorite type of track. The one and a half mile track. Look for Matt to qualify towards the middle of the pack and just keep moving up during the race and leading by about the halfway mark.
• Carl Edwards only has 2 top 10 finishes so far this year but still sits 8th in the standings. Carl won both races here last year and this could be the place that he breaks into the win column this season. The Roush teams are always good at Texas and if they can stay away from engine problems they should all have good runs.
• Jimmie Johnson sits 4th in the standings after his win last week at Martinsville. However, Jimmie hasn’t looked as good at the intermediate tracks yet this season so I am going to stay away from him for now on these tracks. There are plenty of races left to use Jimmie in before the end of the year.
• Kyle Busch had a horrible week at Martinsville and will be glad to get back to a larger higher banked track. As I’ve said in the past, Kyle can win anywhere. Kyle seems to be getting the handle on Texas with 4 top 6 finishes in his last 5 starts here.
• Jeff Gordon sits on top of the standings with another good finish last weekend. Jeff is still trying to break his winless streak and has been running well at Texas over the last few years. Jeff came away with a 2nd place finish to Carl Edwards here last fall.
• Greg Biffle is another Roush driver that will run good this weekend if his engine holds out. Greg started out the year on a high note and has since fallen back a little bit due mostly to mechanical failures. Look for the “Biff” to challenge for the win this weekend.
• Jeff Burton has been one of the more consisstent drivers at Texas over the past few seasons. Jeff has 4 top 6 finishes in his last 6 starts here including a win back in the spring of 2007.

Yahoo Picks for Texas

Group A

• Matt Kenseth
• Carl Edwards

Group B

• Martin Truex Jr.
• Ryan Newman
• Jamie McMurray
• David Ragan

Group C

• AJ Allmendinger
• Marcos Ambrose

Top 5 Overall at Texas

1. Matt Kenseth
2. Carl Edwards
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Kyle Busch
5. Greg Biffle

As always you can Email me with any questions, comments or suggestions at gutsamaniac@hotmail.com You can also leave a post at the end of this article and I will answer it there. Good luck once again this weekend!

“Sorry I didn’t get this article out last week for the Martinsville race. I was pretty surprised at the number of emails I received wondering “where the heck is the Similar Track averages?!?”.

Thanks for letting me know that the article is useful to you.

Similar Track Concept

The theory behind this chart is that there are similar tracks (aka sister tracks) within the NASCAR schedule in terms of banking, distance and shape that a driver may excel at.

What Have You Done For Me Lately?

With all the team changes a driver may do over the course of his career I think the long term view of a driver at any track can be skewed. Bobby Labonte, for instance, is not in as good of equipment as he was when he won the pole at Texas in ‘03 & ‘04. Of course he didn’t finish too well in those races…but you know what I’m getting at.

I like to look at a driver’s career stats at a track, but moreso his most recent statistics. So, this table is sorted by 2008/2009 averages rather then over the length of the drivers career. That stat is still in the table though.

The Tracks

This week’s race is at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, TX. So, the similar tracks we are going to look at are: Texas, Atlanta & Lowe’s Motor Speedway.

The Similarities

C-o-o-k-i-e C-u-t-t-e-r

These tracks put the cookie in “cookie cutter’. They are all 1-1/2-mile, 24°-banked quad-ovals. They are super fast and (ho-hum) sometimes a little boring to watch. The wife and I will be at the track, head-phones on, scarfing down 1-pound mucho grande nachos and cheering (or jeering) the drivers on.

Enough rambling…here is the similar track averages chart for Texas Motor Speedway.

“

“Next up on the NASCAR Cup Series is the Samsung 500 at Texas Motor Speedway, one of the fastest tracks on the circuit. Known as The Great American Speedway, Texas is 1.5 miles long and banked at 24 degrees– similar to Atlanta, which had its first race in early March, and Lowe’s Motor Speedway.

Carl Edwards – (last season: first @ Samsung 500, first @ Dickies 500)
After sweeping both Texas races last season, Edwards is going to be the most popular drivers to love this week. Typically, I avoid a consensus pick but after dominating those races with a total 335 laps led, there’s little room to debate. Edwards is the only three-time winner, his other victory came in 2005. Only one other driver has multiple victories at Texas, Jeff Burton who won in 1997 and 2007.

Here’s a likeable trio for Texas:

Denny Hamlin – (last season: fifth @ Samsung 500, 17th @ Dickies 500)
Runner-up of the last two races, Denny Hamlin must have trouble sleeping at night thinking about what he missed. By looking at his finishes from the April races at Texas, Hamlin does a good job of bringing momentum from the short tracks to Texas Motor Speedway. In three April starts, his average finish is 6.0. Much improved than his performance in the November race, 15.75.

Jamie McMurray – (last season: 14th @ Samsung 500, third @ Dickies 500)
Despite a less-than-stellar average starting position (26.1), McMurray owns the fifth-best average finish at Texas (11.2). If you pardon McMurray for his poor performances in 2006, his average finish jumps to 8.0.

Martin Truex Jr. – (last season: 14th @ Samsung 500, third @ Dickies 500)
If you are looking to save some starts in the Yahoo! game or make room in salary cap formats, Truex Jr. is a very good option to round out your provisional roster of B-List drivers. Texas is one of his better tracks– his average finish of 11.0 is fourth-best. Other than his 36th-place finish last season, due to an engine problem, Truex Jr. has never placed worse than 15th.

Also consider…
Matt Kenseth – (last season: ninth @ Samsung 500, ninth @ Dickies 500)
After starting the season with two straight victories, Kenseth has an average finish of 27.75 in the last four races. At Texas in 2008, he finished ninth in each race. In 2007, he finished second twice. That type of consistency has earned Kenseth the second-best career finish (9.9) at Texas. If there’s a chance for Kenseth to wake up from his nightmare, it’s this week.

Greg Biffle – (last season: 39th @ Samsung 500, fifth @ Dickies 500)
Back in 2005, Biffle won here but in four of nine career starts he’s been knocked out early due to accident or mechanical problems. Given the lack of consistency that the Roush Fenway cars have shown this season — the No. 16 in particular — I’m hating on Biffle this week.

L2H results last week @ Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500
Loves: Jimmie Johnson (first), Denny Hamlin (second), Jeff Gordon (fourth) – The three Martinsville dominators did not disappoint, leading all but 15 laps.
Likes: Ryan Newman (sixth), Juan Pablo Montoya (12th) – Newman is back on track, Montoya stayed true to his average finish.
Hate: Somehow I forgot to include a Hate last week. I guess because there are so many clear-cut starters at Martinsville it slipped my mind.

L2H 2009 Season Tally:
Love/Like average finish: 14.5“

The OBW Experts will get together the day after the Sprint Cup race to discuss the hot topics of the week.

After a relatively quiet race at Bristol, we got physical, half-mile racing this week at Martinsville. It’s a shame we’ve got to wait so long for another short track. Would you like to see another short track added to the schedule or perhaps space the half-mile tracks out differently?

James Jones: I’m a big fan of the original NASCAR tracks in the South, especially the shorter ones. So, if it would mean less racing at Auto Club Speedway and Pocono, then YES!

Ryan Rantz: I love short tracks. I wish NASCAR would abandon some cookie-cutter tracks and bring in some other shorter tracks like O’Reilly Raceway Park at Indianapolis into the mix. Short tracks are all about the driver and the 1.5-mile tracks are mostly about the equipment.

Mike Maruska: It proves that a) Martinsville is a good track and b) the CoT works when there are zero aerodynamics involved.

Eric McClung: I also enjoy the short tracks a lot. In the 80’s, a lot of the new ballparks built in Major League Baseball were built with symmetrical dimensions. Like the 1.5-mile tracks in NASCAR, they lacked character and ultimately became boring. Although it would be nearly impossible with the economy being what it is, I’d like to see some of these tracks get redesigned into unique venues.

Among the races thus far, this one seemed to have the most action up front. Would you say this was the best race of this early season?

Darren Fauth: It was good racing for sure. Definitely better than last week’s Bristol race. Sadly, I think we have lost that track. Two lanes of racing at a short track = boring. It was nice to see that at Martinsville you still have to bump ‘em out of the way.

James Jones: You know, seeing Jeff, Denny and Jimmie leading most of the race might make one think it was more of the same-old same-old. However, I do think it was the best race of the year so far. We had pre-race favorites Denny and Jimmie going at it for the lead; battling for sixth we had Newman and Martin who came up from far back in the field. Top it all off with great runs by Allmendinger, Ambrose, McMurray, and Reutimann. It was refreshing!

I was starting to think the haters were starting to call off the dogs on Kyle Busch a little bit, but after hearing the boos during his introduction and seeing the crowd jump out of their seats to watch him spin out– I was wrong. Can Kyle ever turn folks around or do you think he relishes being the bad guy too much?

Ryan Rantz: I think Kyle Busch couldn’t be happier. He enjoys taunting the fans. I know he’s got plenty of fans here because last year there was a Kyle Busch competition on this site and I did my best to heckle him but people consistently stood up for him, so Kyle has already turned people.

Darren Fauth: I think that Kyle will forever receive the boos. I did an ‘unscientific’ study of Cheers and Jeers at Texas Motor Speedway in 2006. Kyle Busch only got boos on that day. I think people will continue to hate Kyle through his career. He will ultimately end his career as one of the greatest anti-heroes of NASCAR if his winning ways continue through his career.

Mike Maruska: I wish people cared less about WWE-type drama and wanting to draw these lines of good and bad.”

“Well, after two short tracks in a row (and arguably coming off the best race of the 2009 NASCAR season) we head to my home track, Texas Motor Speedway. And yes, once again, the NASCAR ticket fairy has graced the wife and I with race tickets.

Here is a quick run down of trivial facts and statistics for this weekend’s Samsung 500 at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, Texas.

Texas Motor Speedway History

• Construction on Texas Motor Speedway began in 1995.
• The original configuration called for an unusual dual banking system that had 24 degrees of banking for stock cars and eight degrees for open-wheel cars.
• The first NASCAR race at Texas was a NASCAR Nationwide Series event on April 5, 1997.
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Texas was on April 6, 1997.
• In 1998, Turn 4 at Texas was reshaped to ease the transition from the turns to the front straightaway.
• A second renovation started after the 1998 race and eliminated the dual banking and gave the track its current configuration.

Track Numbers

• There have been 16 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Texas Motor Speedway, one per season 1997 through 2004 and two races per year since 2005.
• Four drivers have competed in all 16 Texas races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Mark Martin.
• Jeremy Mayfield won the first timed qualifying on April 4, 1998. Qualifying for the inaugural race in 1997 was canceled.
• Jeff Burton won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race.
• 11 drivers have scored poles at Texas, led by Dale Earnhardt Jr., Bobby Labonte and Ryan Newman with two each.
• 13 drivers have won races, led by Carl Edwards, with three.
• 12 of 16 races have been won from a top-10 starting position. Only one has been won from the pole (Kasey Kahne in 2006).
• Matt Kenseth started 31st en route to his victory at Texas in 2002, the deepest in the field that a race winner has started.
• There have been two green-white-checkered finishes: fall 2006 (339/334) and spring 2008 (339/334).

Hot Fact

Carl Edwards is the only driver with a season sweep at Texas, winning both races in 2008. Jimmie Johnson, who won there in 2007, is the only active driver who averages a top-10 finish at Texas (9.1).

Texas Motor Speedway Data

• Race #: 7 of 36 (4-05-09)
• Track Size: 1.5-mile
• Race Length: 334 laps/501 miles
• Banking/Corners: 24 degrees

Qualifying/Race Data

• 2008 pole winner: Dale Earnhardt Jr (190.907 mph, 28.286 seconds)
• 2008 race winner: Carl Edwards (144.814 mph avg race speed)
• Track qualifying record: Terry Labonte (192.137 mph , 03-31-00)
• Race record: Carl Edwards (151.055 mph, 11-06-05)
• Estimated Pit Window: Every 48-52 laps, based on fuel mileage.

“

What is The C-List?
The weekly guide on getting the most out of low-rent fantasy drivers; C-List drivers in the Yahoo! game and/or drivers valued at $20.00 or less in salary cap games.

Marcos Ambrose – (first career start @ Martinsville Speedway)
Ambrose is coming off an impressive 10th place finish at Bristol and could do well at another short track. Last season, Ambrose finished 18th at Phoenix last season which, like Martinsville, is also very flat.

AJ Allmendinger – (last season: 15th @ TUMS QuikPak 500, 2007: average finish 36.5)
On one hand, Allmendinger gained 24 spots to finish 15th in the October last season. On the other, his set of 2007 starts were duds.

Bobby Labonte – (last season: 25th @ Goody’s Cool Orange 500, 37th @ TUMS QuikPak 500)
At the moment, Labonte is popular pick in the Yahoo! game but I’m not sure why. In the last five years (10 starts), Labonte does own three top-fives, but an average finish of 21.9. Labonte has not finished better than 22nd in the last two years (four starts).

Roll on the dice on the veteran if you’d like but Ambrose and Allmendinger are the grade A options on this week’s C-List.

Sterling Marlin – (2007: 21st @ Goody’s Cool Orange 500, 2006: 21st @ Subway 500)
Over the last five years (nine starts), Marlin’s average finish is 18.1– better than the aforementioned Labonte. It sounds crazy to consider Marlin, but he is coming off a win last week at Bristol. OK, it was the legends race so that doesn’t really count.

Marlin makes the most sense as a Hail Mary in salary cap leagues if you want to start the three Martinsville dominators: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin.

C-List results last week @ Food City 500:

Juan Pablo Montoya (eighth) Looked great at Bristol and still looks good this week.
Aric Almirola (35th) He was a long shot that didn’t pay off, hard to pass on his previous finishes.

C-List 2009 average finish: 18.4″

Junior & Junior

If you ventured into the NASCAR aisle of the Web in the last 48 hours you’ve probably seen the gamut of emotions and opinions surrounding the Juniors (which always seems to be the case with the most popular and often polarizing figure in the sport).

It’s the nature of the beast, but anything associated with Dale Earnhardt Jr. is subject to scrutiny.

It’s not Earnhardt’s fault. It just happens when you have millions of impatient fans with sky-high expectations. So when Earnhardt struggles on the track, his crew chief and cousin, Tony Eury Jr, gets a lot of the blame. This week there has been a lot written about the two Juniors and I disagree with almost all of it at some level.

• It’s all Tony Jr’s fault! Dump him now before it’s too late.
• No one else can be Dale Jr’s crew chief!
• Dale Jr sucks!

Ok, so someone will always throw the last one out there regardless of the context.

How About Some Perspective?

A year ago Earnhardt was enjoying a spectacular transition to Hendrick Motorsports. He won two races during Speedweeks and notched a top 10. He led laps in 10 of the first 12 races, had 1 win, 7 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s in the first 15 races. Critics point to his one win on fuel mileage as a fluke but he could have easily had two or three other wins in slightly different circumstances (late fades at Martinsville and Phoenix, a bump at Richmond, a flat tire at Charlotte).

While the team faded in the second half of the year, make no mistake, the #88 was a top 5 team overall in 2008. Earnhardt Jr’s 99.0 driver rating was 4th best. And before anyone brings up his 12th place points finish, remember that Kyle Busch was 10th.

One thing that is easy to forget is that we as fans are limited in what we see from a race team. We don’t see the intricate preparations at the shops during the week or in the garages on weekends. We see a few practice sessions, qualifying, race day and whatever else the announcers can reveal (which is not always accurate either).

The CoT has flummoxed almost every team at some point in the last two plus years. It’s not a case of Eury simply turning a wrench once or twice and getting it to turn better.

Other Drivers, Similar Situation

In 2006 (and 2008 for that matter) Steve Letarte was viewed by some Jeff Gordon fans as incompetent and unable to provide the correct support for the #24 team. Of course 2007 was a dream season for Gordon and 2009 is shaping up to be a similarly dominant one.

Tony Stewart has suffered through down times, so has Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch will too at some point. Even Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus endured a rough start to 2008. After five races they sat in 13th place with only one finish better than 12th. Five races is not enough time to judge a driver-crew chief combo.

Is Eury The Only One That Gets Junior?

While Eury Jr has been a big factor in Earnhardt’s success, including his 6-win 2004, it’s also unrealistic to say that Eury Jr is the only crew chief capable of dealing with the emotional Earnhardt.

Like no other driver in NASCAR gets emotional on the radio? As if Eury is the only one that can decipher what changes are needed when Earnhardt says his car is a P.O.S?

When Earnhardt first announced his move to Hendrick, I thought Alan Gustafson would have been the perfect crew chief to help transition to a new team. Obviously with Gustafson now paired with Mark Martin, that’s not possible, but Hendrick wouldn’t struggle for options to work on the #88.

The tone of the coverage this week has been that of a team in crisis. Earnhardt is 19th in points and only 66 shy of 12th place. He has made driver errors, lost an engine and qualified poorly in others. Bad in-race adjustments or lousy setups are only parts of the problem on the #88 team, but it’s also very early in the season.

If Earnhardt Jr is still outside the top 12 come July, then it’s fair to revisit Eury’s future. Until then, let’s all relax, give them a chance to rebound, lead some laps, challenge for wins and see how it all plays out.”

The NASCAR Cup series shifts from its most famous short track, Bristol Motor Speedway, to its shortest short track, Martinsville Speedway, for the Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500. The track is just 0.526 miles long and uniquely shaped like a paper clip. Although the banking at Bristol is the highest on the circuit, Martinsville is banked just 12 degrees in the turns.

The defending champion of this race is Denny Hamlin. The most recent winner was Jimmie Johnson, who won here in October of last year.

The top-three average career finishes at Martinsville are owned by the drivers who finished second, third and fourth last week at Bristol:

Jimmie Johnson – (last season: fourth @ Goody’s Cool Orange 500, first @ TUMS QuikPak 500)
Winner of four of the last five races here, Johnson also owns the top career average finish (5.6). In 14 career starts, Johnson has a whopping 10 top-fives. He has finished outside of the top-10 only once– his first career start. Johnson enters this race with a streak of 13 straight top-10s and seven top-fives.

Jeff Gordon – (last season: second @ Goody’s Cool Orange 500, fourth @ TUMS QuikPak 500)
Gordon’s numbers at Martinsville are nearly as impressive as his teammate’s. Who is the better start this week is frankly a toss up. Gordon’s average career finish is 6.9, second-best. Gordon enters this race with a streak of 12 consecutive top-10s and eight top-fives.

Denny Hamlin – (last season: first @ Goody’s Cool Orange 500, fifth @ TUMS QuikPak 500)
Although Hamlin does not boast the body of work on par with Johnson and Gordon, he has been impressive nevertheless. In eight career starts, Hamlin has seven top-eights and an average finish of 7.8, third-best.

I love all three drivers this week. If you can squeeze them under your salary cap, do it.

Owners in allocation leagues should hold nothing back given how dominant these three drivers are at this track. Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick hurt a lot of owners last week– go for broke.

To fill out your provisional rosters, there a few likeable drivers out there:

Juan Pablo Montoya – (last season: 13th @ Goody’s Cool Orange 500, 14th @ TUMS QuikPak 500)
Despite a single top-10, Montoya owns the fifth best career average finish (12.8) at Martinsville– albeit in only four starts. Those finishes have ranged from eighth to 16th. Montoya is coming off his best finish of the season and — after bumping Jamie McMurray around — does not appear to be holding anything back.

Ryan Newman – (last season: 19th @ Goody’s Cool Orange 500, 23rd @ TUMS QuikPak 500)
In 14 career starts at Martinsville, Newman has five top-fives and six top-10s. Last season’s October race snapped a streak of 10 straight top-20s. After a slow start and some bad luck to begin the season, Newman finished seventh last week. Oh, his teammate Tony Stewart has the fourth-best average finish here (12.6). He’s a pretty good option this week too– depends on how many starts you have.

L2H results last week @ Food City 500
Loves: Kevin Harvick (30th), Matt Kenseth (33rd) Hey, I’m not the only one who got burned.
Likes: Denny Hamlin (second), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (14th), Tony Stewart (17th) Hamlin looks like a man on a mission to win.
Hate: Carl Edwards (15th) Not bad, but not want you’d want anytime you start Edwards.

L2H 2009 Season Tally:
Love/Like average finish: 17.2“