So far 2009 looks a lot like 2008. Kyle Busch and Gibbs Racing appear in top form, Roush-Fenway has two wins and looks strong again and Hendrick, despite being winless, looks set for another superb season. Busch has two wins and led 517 laps and looks set to vie for another 8-10 wins. Here’s the problem with all of this: none of it matters until September. If you asked Busch he’d probably say the same thing. Wins and trophies are fun, but for Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson double-digit wins won’t mean as much if they don’t contribute to a championship in November. No one cares about the 2001 Seattle Mariners, the 2007 New England Patriots or the 1991 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (although they were one of the most entertaining college basketball teams ever). The reason no one cares is because these teams were all record-setting in their regular seasons but lost in the playoffs. Admittedly NASCAR is different and any win is a feat, but considering Busch’s Chase history, critics will prevail until September.

While it’s fairly likely that Busch and Johnson will be in the hunt come Chase time, this year could have a different, yet familiar player. Jeff Gordon looks like the 2008 version and is racking up top 5’s like Rob Gordon from High Fidelity. If gordon maintains his pace and Carl Edwards finds his winning form, a four man scrap could ensue.

Notes and Thoughts

• A tale of two Matty’s: In the four Bristol races prior to the CoT, Matt Kenseth had 2 wins, 3 top 5’s and led 50, 415, 127, and 117 laps. Since the CoT he has led zero laps in five races and hasn’t finished better than 9th.
• Better Late than NeverDavid Reutimann spent the entire race inside the top 15, often in the top 5 before fading to 12th. Reutimann has now finished in the top 15 in four of five races this year including a top 5 at Las Vegas. Reutimann is something of a late bloomer on the Cup scene, an anti-Young Gun, but in his third Cup season he is hitting his stride at age 39.
• Looking Out for No. 1 In the victory press conference Busch was asked about comparisons to historical drivers: I’m not out there to be No. 1. We all know who No. 1 is and forever will be. To me, I go out there to win races, to be No. 1 on the racetrack.It’s nice to see Busch appreciates NASCAR history and remembers who was number 1 when he was growing up. Head’s up Steve Park, Shrub’s gunnin’ for you.

“

This week as we head to Martinsville the 2009 owners points for this year come into play for guaranteed starting spots for the top 35 drivers. All of the big names have made it in. Some of those who will have to qualify on time until they can get back into the top 35 are Scott Speed, Paul Menard and Aric Almirola.

• Jeff Gordon is my pick to win this weekend. I said it last week and still believe that Martinsville is one of the best tracks for Jeff to get back to victory lane. Jeff hasn’t finished outside the top 5 in the last 8 races here and won both races back in 2005.
• Jimmie Johnson is definitely the driver to have on your team along with Gordon. Jimmie has won 4 of the last 5 races here and has finished in the top 5 in 9 of his last 10 starts at Martinsville. If you can have both Jeff and Jimmie on your team this is the week to do it.
• Denny Hamlin has finished ion the top 6 in his last 5 starts at Martinsville and took a win away from the Hendrick boys last spring. Denny is another very good pick for this track anytime as he has only finished out of the top 10 once in his career.
• Tony Stewart is the only driver besides the 3 above to have gotten a win at Martinsville in the last 9 races. Tony struggled a little bit at Bristol last week in the teams debut on a short track. He is going to have to improve a lot this week to stay in contention.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. is one of the second tier drivers in the rest of the field. Dale finished 6th and 2nd in last years races here but he also struggled last weekend at Bristol. He should just be happy to get a top 10 finish this week and will need to improve to do it.
• Carl Edwards has gotten better every time he has raced at Martinsville. Carl had 2 top 10 finishes here last year and ran alright at Bristol last week. Carl should have a good chance at cracking the top 10 once again this weekend.
• Kyle Busch is either feast or famine at Martinsville. His best ever finish here is 4th but last year he finished 38th and 29th during a year that he dominated almost everywhere else on the schedule.
• Matt Kenseth started the year like a house on fire but since the first 2 weeks we hardly hear anything about him. Matt is another driver who knows his way around Martinsville and should end up in the top 15 every race.
• Mark Martin has won the last 2 poles and should have a good car once again this weekend. However, this is the track that Mark just hates to race on. I can guarantee you that Mark is not looking forward to racing this weekend even though he could do quite well.

Yahoo Picks for Martinsville

Group A

• Jeff Gordon
• Jimmie Johnson

Group B

• Denny Hamlin
• Dale Earnhardt Jr.
• Jamie McMurray
• Juan Pablo Montoya

Group C

• Marcos Ambrose
• Bobby Labonte

Top 5 Overall at Martinsville

1. Jeff Gordon
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Carl Edwards
5. Jeff Burton

Dark Horse: Jamie McMurray

Stay Away From: Greg Biffle

As always you can Email me with any questions, comments or suggestions at gutsamaniac@hotmail.com or post a question in the forum for me at the end of this article. Good luck once again this weekend!

The OBW Experts will get together the day after the Sprint Cup race to discuss the hot topics of the week.

This week we chat about Bristol, the scoring system, Danica and debate how good Kyle Busch really is. We will also take a look ahead to this Sunday at Martinsville.

F1 is debating a new scoring system that will crown its champion based solely upon wins, do you think NASCAR gives enough points for checkered flags?

Eric Brewer: I think they already give enough points to winners by giving 10 bonus points at the start of the Chase. If they gave any more Kyle Busch might not have blown his lead last year.

James Jones: When I saw the proposed F1 scoring system, I thought the same thing as Kevin Harvick, “the most ridiculous idea I have ever heard.” I think NASCAR’s points break down is very good. They recently started giving the winner more points and I’m good with the spread between first and second place points. If I ran NASCAR, I would award points for the pole.

Ryan Rantz: I don’t think the Cup series awards enough points to race winners. I think the winner should earn a nice solid 200 points for the win. The 200 points shouldn’t be dependent upon any other variables, like laps led, and be the guaranteed value.

Eric McClung: I like the idea of bonus points for winning poles and the flat 200 points for a victory. If I could make any adjustments, perhaps winners of the Chase events should get some extra points to give them an edge on the competition or get closer to the leader. By the way, if NASCAR had awarded championships by wins alone, Dale Earnhardt would go from seven titles to two.

Kyle Busch has now won a race in at least one of NASCAR’s top three series every weekend this season. In your opinion, when it comes to pure talent, where does Busch rank among the best in motorsports?

Mike Maruska: I still rank him behind Danica. You said pure modeling talent right?

James Jones: For me, as a Kyle Busch fan, it’s still entirely way too early to be ranking him as some sort of legend in motorsports. Is he the brightest star now? Absolutely! I just think he needs a few more years and a couple championships to make sure he’s not just a shooting star.

Ryan Rantz: I don’t think it’s possible to be able to rank Kyle Busch among the best in motorsports because he hasn’t tried his hand at enough of them. The Nationwide Series and Camping World Truck Series are not premier motorsports. I don’t ever see it as a big deal when a Cup driver goes down to the lower ranks and wins. If fact, they should be embarrassed if they don’t win. From a talent standpoint, you can’t even call him the best in Cup series.

The Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500 at Martinsville is up next. Jimmie Johnson was won four of the last five races there. Coming off a third-place finish at Bristol, do you consider Johnson the early favorite for Sunday?

James Jones: Martinsville is Jimmie and Jeff Gordon’s sandbox. They are going to be all over the NASCAR media this week as the favorites to win. I’m going with Jeff over Jimmie though, and you can read about why here. That being said, I expect Hamlin to make a good effort to pee in their sandbox.

Eric Brewer: Now that you mention it, I suppose so. I am very surprised that a Chevy hasn’t been to victory lane yet. I will be looking for Jimmie to make his way there this week.

“I didn’t watch the Nationwide Series’ Scotts Turf Builder 300 at Bristol yesterday, but I did catch this video on nascar.com. (Picture launches video on nascar site).

Maybe I’m just too sensitive of a guy.

But, hearing Kyle scream, “The last pit stop. Every time I come to this race track. Y’all suck!”, just really takes me back.

Am I just living in a fantasy world where people aren’t really that spoiled, selfish and rude to each other?

What do you think?

EDIT: Just found this April 11, 2008 Kyle Busch at Phoenix tirade. YouTube video. (Bummer, just when I was beginning to like the little f***er too.)”

“I must say I was somewhat impressed with the top ten finish from Mark Martin in Bristol. Don’t get me wrong, I have no doubt about his ability. But Mark sat out the last four Cup races at Bristol and his previous 12 attempts left him with 23.9 average finish position.

Mark got off on the right foot though by claiming the pole– his second straight pole this year as a matter of fact! In an interview before the race Mark even commented on how long it had been since he had back-to-back poles. The last time was in 1989 when he got them at Darlington and Bristol. In case you’re wondering, Mark finished 6th in that ‘89 Bristol race just as he did in this race.

My Bristol Prediction Results:

Ford = Matt Kenseth. Matt finished 33rd.
Chevrolet = Jeff Gordon. Jeff finished 4th.
Toyota = Denny Hamlin. Denny finished 2nd.
Dodge = Kurt Busch. Kurt finished 11th.

Last week Jeff Gordon was my pick to win Bristol. While he came through with a 4th place finish and moved me to the top of the Experts Picks” standings [I'm gonna enjoy it while I can! :) ], I really thought Gordon would have been up there battling for the lead the entire race. Still, after falling behind towards the end, the #24 team made some adjustments and Gordon was able to move back up into the top 5.

My Martinsville Predictions for each Manufacturer:

If you’re looking for races to save an “A” driver such as Kenseth, Edwards or Biffle, then Martinsville could be a place for you to consider using Jamie McMurray. He actually has a higher driver rating at Martinsville than all of his Roush teammates! This in part due to six of his ten starts here resulting in top ten finishes. It’s still very hard not to go with Matt Kenseth here. You’ll likely end up with a finish around 8th-13th. I’m gonna take a bit of a gamble here though and hope that Jamie’s road course racing skills help him at Martinsville to be Ford’s best hope for a win.

Martinsville Speedway has been Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson’s personal sandbox, and they don’t like other driver’s bringing their toys there. Loop data stats for both drivers are very close with the edge going to Jimmie Johnson. Jimmie just barely beats Jeff in points, average running position, and driver rating. The numbers say Jimmie Johnson is Chevy’s best hope for the win.

Denny Hamlin is the defending race winner for the Spring Martinsville race. With seven career starts here, Denny has finished in the top ten in all but one race (crashed out in Spring of ‘06). Four of those top tens were top five finishes. Kyle may have won Bristol, but Denny’s second place finish there combined with his Martinsville track record means Denny is once again my pick for Toyota’s best hope for a win.

[Edited] Well, as “BUDWRENCH” pointed out below, JPM is no longer in a Dodge. So he can’t be their best hope for a win. I can’t believe I made that mistake! “BUDWRENCH” also says Kurt Busch would be the best Dodge driver here, but I’m not sure. If we’re going on current season performance, then maybe. But if you look a the last couple years here Kasey Kahne is the better pick for Dodge. Kahne has better average finish and more points collected on average. Both Kasey and Kurt start in the top ten and both ended the only practice session within just a few positions of one another. Therefore, I’m going to go with Kahne here. He has quietly put up four consecutive top 12 finishes in the last four races. The last two events (Atlanta & Bristol) he posted a 7th and 5th place finish, respectively.

My Pick To Win?

“Super G”!!! I heard the race commentators call Jeff Gordon that today and thought it was pretty funny. The loop data numbers may have Jimmie Johnson barely (and I mean by a hair) edging out Jeff Gordon at Martinsville, but I just don’t care. Jeff is leading the points, he’s been cracking off top 5s faster than Jimmy Spencer can pop a shirt button, and I think Jimmie’s monopoly on Martinsville wins has come to an end… at least for this week.

Now I have to get my race pick in early in the week, and to show my pick had some thought put into it, consider the following. Gordon has 8 career poles here and two of them came in the last 3 races here. Furthermore, Gordon is leading the points and as of this writing there is a 40% chance of rain projected for Friday. So, if qualifying is canceled Gordon will get the pole and the first pit box selection. Either way, there’s a good chance Jeff will start on the pole. Starting up front and prime pit selection could help give “Super G” the win!”

1. Denny Hamlin
In 2008 Hamlin was the top scorer in the series at the combined 6 short track races at Bristol, Martinsville, and Richmond. In the six races Hamlin had 4 top fives, and 5 top tens. In Hamlin’s lone outside the top ten finish (spring Richmond race) he had a dominating day starting from the pole and leading 381 laps until a cut down tire ruined his day in front of his home town crowd.

In 2008 Hamlin could have easily won the first three short track races if it weren’t for bad luck. Hamlin had the lead late at the spring Bristol race until a fuel pickup problem in the closing laps ruined his day, he won at Martinsville, and also had success at Richmond until the earlier mentioned issue happened. Hamlin also led the most laps (565) at the short tracks in 2008.

Career Finish Averages
Bristol: 14.3
Martinsville: 8.9
Richmond: 8.8

2. Jeff Gordon
Jeff Gordon is accomplished as they come at the short tracks. Gordon has 5 wins at Bristol, 7 wins at Martinsville, and 2 wins at Richmond. Perhaps Gordon’s biggest statistical accomplishment is at Martinsville where he has zero DNF’s in 32 career races.

In 2008 Gordon had 3 top fives and 4 top tens. Gordon was also one of three drivers to complete every lap at these crash up derby tracks. Last year Gordon was second to Hamlin in terms of total points accumulated. His worst finish in 2008 was an 11th place finish at the spring Bristol race.

Career Finish Averages
Bristol: 11.5
Martinsville: 6.9
Richmond: 15.1

3. Clint Bowyer
Clint Bowyer isn’t flashy and he certainly is never mentioned among the top short track drivers. What Bowyer is good at is surviving the carnage that happens at these tracks. Last year Bowyer won at the spring Richmond race. In a way this victory could be considered luck, but Bowyer was there to capitalize on the Kyle Busch- Dale Earnhardt Jr spectacle.

In 2008 Bowyer was 3rd overall in league scoring on the short tracks. Bowyer accumulated 2 top fives, and 5 top tens. Bowyer didn’t lead a lot of laps (94) but survival is really the key to success. Bowyer is also in the elite group of drivers who finished every lap.

Career Finish Averages
Bristol 14.7
Martinsville: 14.0
Richmond: 9.3

4. Kevin Harvick
Kevin Harvick has always been a very successful short track driver. Harvick has career victories at two out of the three short tracks on the circuit (Bristol, Richmond). In 47 career short track races Harvick only has one DNF on his record (Bristol). One notable piece of short track related info about Harvick is that his success at Martinsville is rather limited. In 15 career races Harvick only has 6 top tens.

In 2008 Harvick accumulated 2 top fives and 5 top tens. Like Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer Kevin Harvick is also in the elite group of drivers who completed every lap in 2008. The worst finish the driver of the 29 car had was a 12th place showing at the spring Martinsville race.

Career Finish Averages
Bristol: 9.6
Martinsville: 18.0
Richmond: 11.5

5. Jimmie Johnson
The fall Martinsville race is where Jimmie Johnson traditionally begins his annual thumping the field championship run. The three time champion lead the second most laps in 2008 in the series (520). Johnson also tied Denny Hamlin in the bonus points column (25) and led in 4 races.

His primary strength is Martinsville where he has 5 career wins and 13 top tens in only 14 career races. Johnson’s numbers at the other tracks is a little bit confusing. His stats at Richmond are skewed because he lacked early success there but he has won 3 out of the last 4 races. His history at Bristol is deceiving because he had early success there that he hasn’t been able to replicate it ever since.

Career Finish Averages
Bristol: 17.4
Martinsville: 5.6
Richmond: 17.5

Short Track Notables: Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, and Kurt Busch.

“Thanks to an off week NASCAR hasn’t raced in almost two weeks. That’s good news for anyone who had spring break, insomnia, amnesia or a short prison stint because they didn’t miss a thing. Just in case, here’s a few tidbits in anticipation of Bristol.

• Ratio from talking about wrecks to the actual carnage. 4:1
  Another way to picture that ratio is that for every actual crash at Bristol, there will be four mentions of words like “bullring”, “chrome horn” and “bump and run”. While I love Bristol and the everything rolled into the race package, I sometimes find everyone’s expectations a little too high. Not every race will produce an Earnhardt-Labonte checkers or wreckers finish or Dale Jarrett plowing into Ryan Newman. Recently a lot of Bristol races have been rather tame.
• Who will win the coveted Dune Buggy Award? Thanks to the large amount of wrecks and the lower minimum speed, Bristol gives teams the opportunity to keep racing with, or without sheet metal on the car. This week John Andretti finds a rough spot and winds up with the fierce-looking grill.
• Digger Count: 0 Bristol’s infield is completely paved. Digger should not show up, right? Right?!
• Can Gibbs Racing finally win a Bristol race? In the last six races Gibbs drivers have led 986 laps but none have won in a Gibbs car (Tony Stewart did win in 2001). Mechanical problems struck Stewart and Denny Hamlin in 2007 and last year Stewart and Kyle Busch were both bumped out of the lead late in races after dominating to that point. Can Hamlin or Busch finally seal the deal?
• Is it bad to root for a race to be like March weather? With the NCAA tourney rolling on Sunday, is it bad to hope Bristol comes in like a lamb and goes out like a lion? Let Kyle Busch lead 450 laps, put everyone a lap down and then get rammed by Juan Pablo Montoya with ten to go and suddenly five drivers have a chance to win. I want my to eat my cake.

“

“Something doesn’t add up. The Spring Cup entry lists are dwindling, but it doesn’t make sense.

Bristol has 45 cars on the Cup list. The easy conclusion to draw is that teams just can’t afford to run every race. Sure, times are tough-Jeff Gordon is reportedly keeping all the cans tossed at his car for the deposit.

• The last race at Atlanta had 47 cars entered and slumping attendance (although apparently not as bad as TV made it look).
• Surprisingly, Fontana (48 cars) and Las Vegas (51 cars) had larger entry lists despite the cross-country treks.

One difference from previous seasons is that NASCAR switched the off-week that traditionally split up the Fontana and Vegas races. This could have enticed some teams to stay out west during the week and make one long drive for two races. I never heard (or wasn’t paying attention) whether this factored into NASCAR’s decision to move the off-week, or whether it was because the Nationwide Series didn’t go to Mexico City this year.

Even if teams did stay out west, it’s a little puzzling why they are skipping races so close to Charlotte. Bristol is a three hour, 175 mile trip and Atlanta is 4 1/2 hours and 225 miles away.

The other factor is the purse for Bristol is comparable to Las Vegas (about $5.6 million). Atlanta’s purse is a bit less, so for a smaller team it makes sense to skip a track in favor of chasing the bigger money at tracks like Texas or Indianapolis. But I just can’t figure out why the fringe teams are passing over Bristol?

Even from a merchandise angle Bristol packs the fans in better than Fontana or Atlanta.

As the old NASCAR chestnut goes, “come for the qualifying laps, stay for the diecast sales” (note:this is not, nor will it ever be, an old chestnut).

The only negative to showing up at Bristol is for a team to actually make the race and get their car torn to pieces in a Reed Sorenson-inspired wreck.

How much can sheet metal really cost? “

Top 35 Owner Points Countdown: Four Down, One to Go

The developing picture of the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will become clearer at the conclusion of the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 22.

That’s when the use of last year’s final car owner points to determine the top 35 weekly guaranteed starting spots ends. Starting at Martinsville Speedway March 29, the current owner points determine the top 35 guarantees. The “bubble” is big news looking ahead to Bristol.

The reason for that, is this: Some major NASCAR names are hovering way-too-close to the cut-off, starting with the out-of-retirement Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/Carquest Chevrolet) whose Hendrick Motorsports team sits in 35th this week, merely nine points ahead of the 36th-place team owned by Chip Ganassi, the No. 8 Cub Cadet Chevrolet driven by Aric Almirola.

Some other teams in potential bubble trouble:

The No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet owned by Tony Stewart and driven by Ryan Newman, 32nd in car owner points, a surprising development to say the least;

The No. 82 Red Bull Toyota owned by Dietrich Mateschitz and driven by former Formula One racer Scott Speed, a Raybestos Rookie of the Year candidate, is 37th.

And the No. 20 Home Depot Toyota owned by Joe Gibbs and driven by Joey Logano — arguably the favorite in the rookie of the year competition — is 33rd in the standings.

Now, consider the “Bristol factor.”

The half-mile high-banked oval is notorious for incidents that can quickly ruin one’s chances of winning. With the top 35 situation in play, Bristol quickly becomes even more worrisome.

Nothing like an off-week to let the nerves simmer.

Busch Brothers Post Back-To-Back Wins For Second Consecutive Year

Kurt and Kyle Busch have posted back-to-back NASCAR Sprint Cup Series wins for the second consecutive year.

In the series’ two most recent events, Kyle, 23, (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota) won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway March 1 where the brothers were also the top-two qualifiers, while Kurt, 30, (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge) won at Atlanta Motor Speedway on March 8.

The brothers also posted consecutive wins in 2008. Kyle won at Infineon Raceway in Sonoma, Calif., followed by Kurt winning at New Hampshire the following week.

So far as the sibling rivalry goes, Kurt, the 2004 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion, still has the upper hand in the race wins category with 19, compared to Kyle’s 13.

Both have won at the series’ next stop at Bristol Motor Speedway, but only Kurt has also won at Martinsville.

In fact, Kurt scored his first career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win in 2002 at Bristol. His second career win came at Martinsville. He has also won pole awards at both tracks.

But while younger brother Kyle was on a roll last year with a dominating eight wins, Kurt had only one, at New Hampshire in June.

“This was big,” Kurt said of the comeback victory. “I have to thank my Miller Lite guys… this car was unbelievable.

“We had great calls by (crew chief Pat Tryson) and our engineering staff. Penske power is back. This feels awesome.”

He also topped his hat to Kyle.

“I’ve got to hold up my end of the bargain because Kyle is on a tear right now,” Kurt said. “I’m real proud of him. Real happy for him. “

Penske Has Change Of Heart

After watching Kurt Busch go to Victory Lane at Atlanta, car owner Roger Penske admitted a change of heart over the newly instituted NASCAR test ban at any NASCAR-sanctioned track.

“I think over the offseason I complained about not having testing, but (now) I’m glad we didn’t because we worked on some of the (other) things we needed (to work on).”

Meanwhile, Penske also observed that the new NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race car is demonstrating an important intended benefit. With a fleet of Dodge race cars in their shop, the team raced the same car within seven days with great success.

Game Plan For Cracking Top 35: Keep It Simple

A simple philosophy is paying dividends for a start-up NASCAR Sprint Cup Series team: qualify for the races and then finish them.

That’s the goal for the new full-time effort of team owner Kevin Buckler and the No. 71 Capital Window/TRG Motorsports Chevrolet team.

Driver David Gilliland is teaming nicely with crew chief Slugger Labbe. The No. 71 has made only three of the four races thus far, all with driver Gilliland. Nonetheless, the entry is 34th in car owner points, ahead of a number of higher-profile teams, including that of living legend Mark Martin.

Martin Has Short-Track History

Mark Martin’s first pole in eight years at Atlanta last weekend may offer some further optimism, as he attempts to get an initially promising season back on course.

Bristol Motor Speedway and Martinsville Speedway, sites of the Food City 500 on March 22 and the Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500 on March 29,  are places where Martin has also won poles. The Atlanta pole was the 42nd pole of his career.

Martin’s 1989 pole at Bristol led to a sixth- place result; his 1993 Bristol pole resulted with a win; his 1995 pole brought a fifth-place finish; his 1996 pole there resulted in a third-place finish; and his 2001 pole resulted in an unusual 34th- place finish.

At Martinsville, Martin has two poles, both in 1991 that resulted in finishes of 29th and fifth.

In all, Martin has two wins at Martinsville and one at Bristol and two at Atlanta.

Martin has 35 career wins, the first in 1989 at Rockingham, N.C., and the most recent at Richmond in 2001.

Martin’s best year in pole qualifying was 1989 when he won four poles.

Loop Data: Kurt Busch Scores Perfect Driver Rating at Atlanta

When your statistics far surpass your standings position, you’re likely having bad luck. Right now, three drivers at Hendrick Motorsports know that exact feeling.

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet) continued his march up the standings after Atlanta and sits just one spot out of the top 12.

But statistically, he has been much better than his points position suggests. Though 13th in points, Johnson ranks in the top five of nearly every key statistical category.

The three-time defending series champion has a Driver Rating of 104.2 (fourth-best), an Average Running Position of 8.5 (second), 81 Fastest Laps Run (fourth), a fifth-fastest Green Flag Speed and 894 Laps in the Top 15 (87.9%), which is third-most.

In other words, there is little reason for panic. Also, Johnson’s slow start is nothing new. Last season he was also 13th after four races and entered the top 10 for good after race No. 6.

Mark Martin feels his Hendrick Motorsports teammate’s pain. Martin has suffered a DNF in two of four races this season and has failed to finish on the lead lap in three of the four.

Statistics indicate he has been competitive prior to each problem. His ranking in most categories is higher than his 34th-place points position. He has a Driver Rating of 86.4 (13th), an Average Running Position of 17.2 (17th), 31 Fastest Laps Run (seventh) and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 60.3% (14th).

The same goes for Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet), another Hendrick driver. He has a 15th-best Driver Rating of 79.8, but a points position of 24th. He also has an Average Running Position (17.3) and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage (58.2%) that rank in the top 15.

Earnhardt’s Lucky Penny Donor Wessa Miller To Revisit Bristol

Wessa Miller, the girl who gave Dale Earnhardt Sr. her lucky penny prior to his winning the Daytona 500 in 1998, will make a second visit to Bristol Motor Speedway on March 22. Earnhardt brought Wessa and her family to Bristol 11 years ago to thank them for the special gift, which rode with him to Daytona’s victory.

Through the efforts of the NASCAR Angels television program and working with The NASCAR Foundation, Motor Racing Outreach (MRO), and the Pennies For Wessa Fund, the Miller family makes its return visit to Bristol.

Miller, now 16-years-old and still residing in Phyllis, Ky., was six-years-old on Feb. 15, 1998, when her dream to meet the legendary Earnhardt came true through the Make-A-Wish Foundation. During their meeting, Wessa gave Earnhardt her lucky penny. That weekend, with the coin affixed to the dashboard of his No. 3 GM Goodwrench Chevrolet, Earnhardt won the Daytona 500 in his 20th attempt.

That April, Earnhardt arranged to have Wessa and her family attend Bristol. He presented the Millers with a new van to help with their transportation needs.

The NASCAR Foundation has partnered with NASCAR Angels and Motor Racing Outreach to launch an online auction that will benefit the MRO Benevolent Fund which supports causes such as the Pennies For Wessa Fund.

The auction will feature a variety of items including autographed memorabilia from drivers.

The Pennies For Wessa Fund was started by NASCAR beat writer and Sirius XM radio host David Poole in an effort to assist the needs of the Miller family.

To learn more or to bid on items to support this auction, visit www.nascar.com/foundation.

Donations can also be made directly by visiting the Pennies For Wessa Fund at www.penniesforwessa.org.

Up Next: Back-To-Back Short Tracks: Bristol Motor Speedway and Martinsville Speedway

Following the off weekend, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series hits stride with back-to-back short track events.

The series makes it’s 97th appearance at the .533-mile Bristol Motor Speedway for the Food City 500 March 22, followed by the Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500 at the .526-mile Martinsville (Va.) Speedway March 29.

Bristol looms large in setting the tenor for the first half of the season. The Food City 500 is the fifth race of 2009, and the last where the top-35 owner points of 2008 are assured of starting positions this year. After the Food City 500, the top 35 in current owner points are eligible for making it into events moving forward as long as they remain in the top 35.

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet) scored his first Bristol win in the 2008 Food City 500. Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet) finished second followed by Clint Bowyer (No. 33 BB&T Chevrolet), Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Two drivers, Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon (No 24 DuPont Chevrolet) lead active drivers with five Bristol wins each.

Darrell Waltrip leads all drivers with 12 Bristol wins, seven of them in consecutive events from spring 1981 through spring 1984. All seven were with retired team owner Junior Johnson.

Johnson is the series all-time leading car owner at Bristol with 21 wins. Jack Roush is second with 10 wins.

The 1989 series champion, Rusty Wallace, holds nine Bristol victories. Wallace was so dominant at Bristol he won the pole seven times, and converted four of those poles to victories.

At Martinsville, Gordon leads active drivers with seven wins, followed by teammate Jimmie Johnson with five wins each.

Next Race: Food City 500

The Place: Bristol Motor Speedway (.533-mile concrete oval)

The Date: Sunday, March 22

The Time: 2 p.m. ET

Race Distance: 500 laps/266.5 miles

TV: FOX , 1:30 p.m. ET

Radio: PRN and Sirius Satellite

2008 Polesitter: Jimmie Johnson (via final 2007 points; qualifying was rained out)

2008 Winner: Jeff Burton

Schedule: (All times local ET) Friday—Practice, 12-1:30 p.m., Qualifying, 3:40 p.m. Saturday—Practice, 11-11:45 a.m.

2009 Top 12 Drivers

Rank	Driver	Points
1	Jeff Gordon	634
2	Clint Bowyer	591
3	Kurt Busch	588
4	Carl Edwards	547
5	Matt Kenseth	546
6	Tony Stewart	521
7	Kyle Busch	514
8	Kevin Harvick	511
9	Kasey Kahne	484
10	Greg Biffle	480
11	Brian Vickers	477
12	David Reutimann	475

“We looked at this odd grouping of similar NASCAR tracks just a couple of weeks ago when NASCAR raced in Las Vegas. Our percentage of close calls wasn’t too bad. 12 of the 41 participating drivers in our list finished within five spots of where the similar track averages placed them. And, that included a variety of A-List drivers like Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick and Greg Biffle as well as B & C-List drivers like AJ Allmendinger, Paul Menard & Joe Nemechek.

23 of our 41 drivers finished within ten spots of where our similar track averages placed them. That’s 56%.

Similar Track Concept

The theory behind this chart is that there are similar tracks (aka sister tracks) within the NASCAR schedule in terms of banking, distance and shape that a driver may excel at.

What Have You Done For Me Lately?

I am prone to look at a drivers performance more recently then over their career. So, this table is sorted by 2008 averages rather then over the length of the drivers career. That stat is still in the table though.

The Tracks

This week’s race is at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN. So, the similar tracks we are going to look at are: Bristol, Las Vegas, Homestead-Miami, Darlington & Dover.

The Similarities

This may seem like an odd combination of tracks. It is the ‘loosest’ of all our are similar track associations. I group these tracks together though based on these similarities: They are all relatively steeply-banked tracks ranging from 20° – 25°’s with Bristol all the way up to 36°. These tracks don’t adhere to the typical cookie-cutter design like Texas, Charlotte & Atlanta. Some are concrete (Bristol and Dover) and some are former flat tracks converted to a steeper banking (Homestead-Miami and Las Vegas). Historically, this group of tracks have worked out well together.

By the way, this table also shows the drivers median finish which I think is better than the average.

* Take these drivers with a grain of salt. Logano’s only race in our similar tracks was the Vegas race a few weeks ago. Kvapil didn’t race Las Vegas this year and only accomplished an average finish of 25.5 at Bristol last year. Scott Speed only has this year’s Vegas start and only one short track race at the Cup level which was Martinsville last year where he finished 30th.

Rank	Driver	Bristol	Vegas	Miami	Darlington	Dover	Starts	Avg	‘08/’09
1	Carl Edwards	12.0	14.0	5.0	7.0	3.0	33	8.2	4.6
2	Jeff Gordon	7.0	10.5	6.0	3.0	7.0	90	6.7	8.3
3	Kyle Busch	8.5	6.0	29.0	15.0	5.0	30	12.7	11.5
4	Clint Bowyer	7.5	21.5	10.0	15.0	10.0	22	12.8	12.4
5	Joey Logano*	0.0	13.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	13.0	13.0
6	Travis Kvapil*	22.0	26.0	29.5	30.0	22.0	22	25.9	13.1
7	Kevin Harvick	4.0	12.0	7.5	15.5	19.5	61	11.7	14.8
8	Matt Kenseth	9.0	11.0	21.0	19.0	8.0	72	13.6	15.0
9	Greg Biffle	9.5	7.5	13.0	12.0	7.0	46	9.8	15.1
10	Denny Hamlin	10.0	9.5	8.0	7.0	24.5	23	11.8	16.1
11	Jamie McMurray	18.0	15.0	14.0	13.5	14.0	46	14.9	16.3
12	Jeff Burton	12.5	6.5	12.5	9.5	10.0	90	10.2	16.8
13	Martin Truex Jr	26.5	17.5	8.0	14.0	9.5	23	15.1	16.9
14	David Ragan	23.5	37.0	17.0	16.0	18.0	16	22.3	17.1
15	Jimmie Johnson	16.0	8.5	8.5	5.0	7.5	54	9.1	17.2
16	Kasey Kahne	16.5	8.5	16.0	16.5	28.5	37	17.2	17.7
17	Mark Martin	14.5	6.0	9.0	10.0	5.0	85	8.9	18.2
18	Dale Earnhardt Jr	9.0	13.5	21.0	10.5	18.5	69	14.5	18.4
19	Scott Speed*	0.0	21.0	16.0	0.0	0.0	2	18.5	18.5
20	David Gilliland	30.0	21.0	32.0	25.0	24.0	18	26.4	19.7
21	Tony Stewart	15.0	10.0	12.0	11.0	6.5	77	10.9	20.3
22	Dave Blaney	29.5	26.0	22.0	26.5	25.0	60	25.8	20.7
23	David Reutimann	22.5	20.5	22.5	26.0	18.0	11	21.9	20.8
24	Juan Pablo Montoya	18.0	22.0	17.0	23.0	21.5	16	20.3	21.5
25	Ryan Newman	15.5	14.0	21.0	5.5	8.0	54	12.8	22.1
26	Bobby Labonte	21.5	12.5	17.5	14.0	14.0	90	15.9	23.1
27	Casey Mears	31.0	13.0	21.0	34.5	21.5	45	24.2	24.4
28	Scott Riggs	24.5	29.0	14.5	30.0	24.5	34	24.5	24.7
29	Brian Vickers	20.0	23.0	33.0	24.0	21.0	36	24.2	24.9
30	Kurt Busch	9.0	20.0	21.0	12.5	18.0	62	16.1	25.2
31	Bill Elliott	19.0	14.0	17.0	11.0	18.0	59	15.8	25.3
32	AJ Allmendinger	35.0	33.0	11.0	31.5	35.0	11	29.1	26.3
33	Michael Waltrip	22.0	22.0	35.0	25.0	22.5	85	25.3	27.3
34	Regan Smith	25.0	26.5	34.0	29.0	29.0	9	28.7	27.7
35	Robby Gordon	26.5	26.5	27.0	28.0	22.0	61	26.0	27.9
36	Paul Menard	24.0	32.0	30.0	33.5	21.0	14	28.1	28.0
37	Aric Almirola	13.0	40.0	35.0	0.0	0.0	6	29.3	28.2
38	Elliott Sadler	24.0	28.0	28.0	18.5	18.5	78	23.4	30.1
39	Reed Sorenson	33.5	32.5	25.0	32.0	26.5	23	29.9	30.1
40	Marcos Ambrose	0.0	20.0	42.0	0.0	32.0	3	31.3	31.3
41	Sam Hornish Jr	33.0	28.5	37.0	38.0	30.0	8	33.3	32.4
42	Joe Nemechek	27.0	19.0	21.0	21.0	26.0	83	22.8	34.9