Dover Downs, The Monster Mile, Bristol on Steroids Flintstones Vitamins. The one mile, high-banked concrete oval goes by many names. How about a new, nerdier, albeit accurate moniker? The Place Where Lead Lap Finishes Go to Die. Catchy, right? Most current Cup races tend to feature the majority of undamaged cars on the lead lap. It allows for different pit strategies and for teams to improve their cars throughout a race.

At Dover drivers had better start the race with a good setup or they will be out of it quickly. Most races feature 10-15 lead lap cars and often less than ten. The last two Dover races have ended with only six drivers on the lead lap. A wild race in 2004 featured 5 lead lap cars and 17 cars posted DNF’s. A scan of current driver’s numbers at Dover show a shockingly low percentage of lead lap finishes. Mark Martin and Bill Elliott have won 4 races each, but neither has finished on the lead lap more than 50% of the time.

It wouldn’t be exciting every week, but Dover offers something a little different. Drivers can’t afford to fall behind early. For Chase drivers it could really separate the field.

One driver that would love a lead lap finish is Matt Kenseth. Dover has not been a track filled with warm memories during the Chase. He runs very well at the track, but it’s been costly during previous Chases. In 2004 he plowed into the water barrels lined up next to the pit road entrance. This hurt the aerodynamics and the handling of the car a bit.

In 2006 he led 215 laps but didn’t pit on the final stop while everyone else did. He got passed by Jeff Burton and then ran out of gas limping home in 10th. The 41 point difference proved costly as he narrowly lost the Championship to Jimmie Johnson.

Last year Kenseth again dominated, leading 192 laps, but his engine wheezed and died before the finish.

What Happened Last Year

Morgan Shepard was headed for a sure victory until a crevice opened up in Turn 3 and swallowed up the veteran driver. After a brief competition yellow to evaluate tire wear, the race resumed. Carl Edwards won the race, then flunked inspection when Mike Helton found an illegal Koi pond in the trunk of Edwards’ car and was penalized during the week. [Note: I was out of the country and didn't actually see the race. This recreation of the events may contain inaccuracies]

Who Will Win

Greg Biffle runs incredibly well at Dover and will be the chic pick to win again this week. Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards have won the last two Dover races and should also be strong. This week it’s Hendrick’s turn. Would you laugh if I picked Dale Jr to win? Sure he struggled this summer and has become reliable for tailing off in the final segment of races, but Dover is different than other tracks. Eanrhardt usually runs really well here. He has won in the past, finished 3rd last fall and was wrecked this summer before he had a chance to fade show his stuff. He also runs well at Bristol and Darlington, the two tracks remotely similar to Dover. And frankly, I think Hendrick has certain tracks where they have just figured things out. Dover is one of those tracks (trick shock packages don’t hurt, either). Don’t worry, I’lll still be an idiot on Monday whether Junior wins or not.