It seems like everyone loves Atlanta. The high banking and even higher speeds means people can pass wherever their cars work. The downside is that cars get very strung out, so while your car might be able to pass anywhere on the track you first have to have someone in sight before overtaking said cars. Of course, as Dale Earnhardt Jr alleged last week, NASCAR will bunch the field up late in the race. That’s how Jimmie Johnson has won three times at Atlanta. Each time he took the lead thanks to a late caution despite faster cars being on the track. In 2004 Mark Martin dominated the proceedings, but a late caution allowed Johnson to beat everyone out of the pits, assume the lead and win an incredibly emotional race the week after the Hendrick plane tragedy. Last spring Johnson snuck by Tony Stewart after a late caution with 11 laps left. Johnson was able to close in on Stewart and pass him with two to go. He followed that up with another reverse Houdini act in the fall. In the midst of a 4-race win streak, Johnson avoided Denny Hamlin’s slowing car to take the lead as the caution came out with eight laps left. They were the only eight laps he led all day, but once again he peaked at the right time.

Tires will also be a question. Tony Stewart, despite a 2nd place finish, lambasted Goodyear for the virtually undrivable tire. While the spring race did resemble a joke, it wasn’t completely Goodyear’s fault. The CoT had only raced in two speedway races so there wasn’t a lot of data to compare (although you could argue that more tire tests would have fixed that). The combination of Atlanta’s weathered old track and the high speeds also chewed up tires faster than three or four years ago. So Goodyear was left with the choice of either risking a softer tire for the sake of competition, or a harder, less competitive tire in the name of safety. I will never say safety is the wrong choice.

Back to Johnson for a minute. He owns a solid 149 point lead with four races left. He could certainly relax and just shoot for top tens from here out and likely cruise to his third straight title, but why? Johnson is statistically the best driver at Atlanta (113.4 driver rating, 8.6 average finish, 3 wins, 8 top 5’s in 13 starts) and the #48 team has proven their speedway strength in the second half of this season. Why in the world would Chad Knaus bring anything other than their best setup to Atlanta? Can they relax? Sure. Should they relax? There’s no reason to.

Who Will Win?

Atlanta is one of those tracks where the top drivers all tend to run well. Looking at the top 12 there are 8 or 9 drivers that wouldn’t surprise if they won. Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth are, incredibly, still winless for 2008. Carl Edwards has come very close in several Chase races and he’s phenomenal at Atlanta. Ditto for Greg Biffle (the phenomenal part). Dale Earnhardt Jr, Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon always run well at Atlanta, but you could also say the same thing about Jimmie Johnson. Kyle Busch won the spring Atlanta race and was very fast at Lowe’s is a possibility, granted the team hasn’t turned their setups to 2009. In the end, Jimmie Johnson is like Rapid Release Gels and everyone else is shooting for second. Complain if you want to, but the #48 is a dynasty in action and you should at least appreciate it.