Similar Track Concept

The theory behind this chart is that there are similar tracks (aka sister tracks) within the NASCAR schedule in terms of banking, distance and shape that a driver may excel at.

Recent Performance is Better Then Career Performance

I do like to see how a driver does at a track through his career. It points to his strengths as a racer. But, I like to base my fantasy picks on how a driver has done recently at a track. I just can’t look at Bobby Labonte’s or Sterling Marlin’s career stats because they are not in the same quality equipment they once were.

So, this table is sorted by 2008/2009 averages rather then over the length of the drivers career. That stat is still in the table though.

The Tracks

This week’s race is at Phoenix International Raceway. It is 1-mile long and has shallow 11° banking. I like to compile stats at this track with the other short and shallow tracks on the NASCAR circuit: New Hampshire. Martinsville and Richmond.

The Similarities

• Phoenix: 1-mile with 11° banking
• New Hampshire: 1.058-mile with 12° banking
• Martinsville: .526-mile with 12° banking
• Richmond: .75-mile with 14° banking

Jimmie Johnson swept both races here last year and has won three in a row total.
When considering who to start, consider the results from Martinsville Speedway, which is also a very flat track and held just a few weeks ago.

Jimmie Johnson – [first @ Subway Fresh Fit 500, first @ Checker Auto Parts 500]
In addition to the aforementioned three-peat, Johnson has never finished worse than 15th in 11 career starts. Over the last six races this season, Johnson has five top-10s and enters with three consecutive top-three finishes, including a victory at Martinsville.

Jeff Gordon – [13th @ Subway Fresh Fit 500, 41st @ Checker Auto Parts 500]
Until an engine issue last season, Gordon had never finished worse than 17th at Phoenix, his first start there. In between Gordon compiled 12 top-10s in 14 starts. He owns a single victory at Phoenix but his dominate start to the season will keep him in the debate at nearly every track on the schedule.

Salary caps owners will have to debate which to love more: Johnson’s better career numbers versus Gordon’s blistering start. Allocation owners should have both on their provisional roster and perhaps wait until qualifying or practice sessions to make a final decision.

While it’s clear who the top options are, there are still several likeable choices:

Kevin Harvick – [19th @ Subway Fresh Fit 500, seventh @ Checker Auto Parts 500]
Since finishing second at Daytona, Harvick has an average finish of 20.33 this season. Despite those erratic performances, Harvick is a sneaky play this week. He swept the 2006 races and in four starts since then owns an average finish of 10.5 at Phoenix.

Denny Hamlin – [third @ Subway Fresh Fit 500, fifth @ Checker Auto Parts 500]
The knock on Hamlin has been inconsistency at intermediate-length tracks but over his last five Phoenix starts, Hamlin has four top-fives, including a trio of third-place finishes. Just a few weeks ago, Hamlin finished second and led the most laps at Martinsville, another flat track.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – [seventh @ Subway Fresh Fit 500, sixth @ Checker Auto Parts 500]
After taking home the checkered flag in 2003 and 2004, Earnhardt’s performances look uneven on paper. But if you excuse the two DNFs, Earnhardt has an average finish jumps to 11.33 since 2005 at Phoenix.

Kasey Kahne – [36th @ Subway Fresh Fit 500, 13th @ Checker Auto Parts 500]
I’m on hating Kahne this week because he has finished worse than he has started in each of his nine career starts at Phoenix.

C-List
Get the most out of low-rent fantasy drivers; C-List drivers in the Yahoo! game and/or drivers valued at $20.00 or less in most salary cap games.

Bobby Labonte – [12th @ Subway Fresh Fit 500, 19th @ Checker Auto Parts 500]
Readers of the C-List know I’ve been sour on Labonte thus far this season. Well this week is a good one start Labonte. Over the last three years (six starts), Labonte has finished 19th or better in five starts. What I like even better than the consistent results is the fact Labonte has overcome very poor starting position, an average of 30.8 in those five races.

AJ Allmendinger – [16th @ Checker Auto Parts 500]
In your back pocket should be Allmendinger, who qualified 13th and finished 16th in his only career start in the valley of the sun. Last month at Martinsville, another flat track, Allmendinger came away with a top-10 finish.”

Here is a quick run down of trivial facts and statistics for this weekend’s Subway Fresh Fit 500 at Phoenix International Raceway in Phoenix, Arizona.

Phoenix International Raceway History

• Construction was completed in January 1964. The facility consisted of a one-mile oval and a 2.5-mile road course.
• Alan Kulwicki won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Phoenix on Nov. 6, 1988.
• The NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series debuted at Phoenix on Feb. 5, 1995. Mike Skinner becomes the series’ first winner.
• The first NASCAR Nationwide Series race was on Nov. 11, 1999.
• The first spring race was held on April 23, 2005. Also the first night race, it was won by Kurt Busch.

Track Numbers

• There have been 25 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Phoenix International Raceway, one per season from 1988-2004 and two each season since.
• Geoffrey Bodine won the first pole in 1988.
• There have been 15 different pole winners, led by Ryan Newman with four.
• Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon are the only drivers to win consecutive poles. Newman won three straight (2002-04), while Gordon won the fall of 2006 and spring of 2007.
• There have been 19 different race winners, led by Jimmie Johnson who has won the last three. Johnson was the last driver to win four consecutive races at a track – Lowe’s Motor Speedway from 2004-05.
• The race has been won from the pole twice: Jeff Gordon (spring 2007) and Jimmie Johnson (fall 2008).
• The race has been won from a top-10 starting position in 12 of 25 races.
• Ricky Rudd won the 1995 race from the 29th-place starting position, the furthest back a race winner has started.
• There has been one green-white-checkered race at Phoenix: November 2004 (315 laps).

Hot Fact

Mark Martin has nine top-five finishes at Phoenix, more than any other driver. He has one victory and five second-place finishes in his 24 races and has just one DNF, that coming in his first race there.

NASCAR in Arizona

• There have been 30 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Arizona.
• 29 drivers in NASCAR national series history have their home state recorded as Arizona.
• There have been no race winners from Arizona in NASCAR’s three national series.

Phoenix International Raceway Data

• Race #: 8 of 36 (4-18-09)
• Track Size: 1 mile
• Banking Turns: 1 and 2: 11 degrees
• Banking Turns 3 and 4: 9 degrees
• Banking/Frontstretch: 3 degrees
• Banking/Backstretch: 9 degrees
• Frontstretch: 1,179 feet
• Backstretch: 1,551 feet

Qualifying/Race Data

• 2008 pole winner: Ryan Newman (133.457 mph, 26.975 seconds)
• 2008 race winner: Jimmie Johnson (103.292 mph, 4-21-07)
• Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (135.854 mph, 26.499 seconds, 11-5-04)
• Track race record: Tony Stewart (118.132 mph, 11-7-99)
• Pit Window: Approximately 70-78 laps, based on fuel mileage.

“

• Jimmie Johnson has won the last 3 races at Phoenix which is very similar to Martinsville with it’s banking and shape. The only difference is Martinsville is approximately 1/2-mile and Phoenix is a 1-mile track. Jimmie will win this race once again this weekend.
• Carl Edwards knows how to get around these types of tracks also. Carl has 6 top 10 finishes in oonly 9 races at Phoenix. This team seems to be getting a little better every week and should be around to contend for the win at the end of this week’s race.
• Jeff Gordon is another driver that can get around on the short, flat tracks. Jeff got his first and only win here back in the spring of 2007. He should be in the top 5 once again this weekend and retain his lead in the standings.
• Denny Hamlin has only raced here 7 times during his short career and has 4 top 5 finishes in those starts. Denny is at his best when it comes to racing on the flat tracks and one of these weeks everything will come together for him and he will send this team to victory lane.
• Jeff Burton is another driver that will be around when the race winds down. Jeff used to dominate here earlier in his career and lately he has put everything back together at Phoenix. This could be the week that he gets his first win of the season.
• Tony Stewart has been surprisingly good right off the bat in his first season as owner/driver. They might not be winning any races yet but they sure are having great runs most every week. Tony has never been one to win a lot of races early in the season so he is actually doing very well at this point of the season.
• Kevin Harvick won back-to-back races at Phoenix during the 2006 season. Kevin consistently runs very well at Phoenix and can never be counted out of a race here. This team is also another slow starting team but can snap out of it at any time at a track like Phoenix.
• Mark Martin has always run well at Phoenix. For a guy that just hates to race at Martinsville it is surprising how well he runs here. Mark has also been on a roll lately after his early season demise because of engine and tire failures. My prediction is that Mark will make the Chase yet this year and to do that he needs to keep running well every weekend.

Yahoo Picks for Phoenix

Group A

• Jimmie Johnson
• Jeff Gordon

Group B

• Denny Hamlin
• Kurt Busch
• Tony Stewart
• Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Group C

• Bobby Labonte
• AJ Allmendinger

Top 5 Overall at Phoenix

• Jimmie Johnson
• Denny Hamlin
• Jeff Gordon
• Kevin Harvick
• Tony Stewart

Dark Horse: Jamie McMurray

Stay Away From: Ryan Newman

As always you can Email me with any questions, comments or suggestions at gutsamaniac@hotmail.com. Good luck once again this weekend!

This week we chat about Gordon’s championship odds, outside picks for the Chase and ask if Michael Waltrip is better in front of the camera than behind the wheel.

In the last six races, Jeff Gordon has finished no worse than sixth. Now that Gordon has just ended the winless drought at 47 races. I’m looking for someone to declare Gordon a lock for the championship. Any takers?

Darren Fauth: Jeff Gordon is a lock… for the Chase. Going into the 2009 season, my gut feeling was that he was gonna be the champion. The strange thing is that I am finding myself pulling for him. Stranger still is that I almost bought a Jeff Gordon hat at the track on Sunday.

Jeffrey Gutowski: There is no such thing as a lock for the championship with the Chase rules. If the Chase started today Gordon would be behind Matt Kenseth going into the first race. Every team has droughts sometime during the season and if that drought happens during the Chase, like it did to Kyle Busch last year, there will be no championship for Gordon.

Eric Brewer: Not yet. Smoke has not even got warmed up yet. It is usually in the summer when that happens. Jimmie Johnson is a closer, so his season peaks at the end during the Chase. Kyle Busch may win another six or more races, so he is not out yet. The season just started– we haven’t even seen ‘Dega yet.

Ryan Rantz: I like Jimmie Johnson for the championship. My lasting image of Jeff Gordon in 2007 — the last time he had a good start for the season — was Gordon waving the white flag in victory lane celebrating Johnson’s win at Phoenix. Fast starts don’t mean much since the “real races” start in September.

Give me one driver that is currently worse than 15th in points that could make the Chase.

Ryan Rantz: Mark Martin is a driver outside the top-15 that I think will easily make the Chase. Not only that, but have perhaps his best run at the championship in the last decade. With NASCAR moving Talledega later in the Chase, his championship hopes won’t get crushed as early this year.

Darren Fauth: Dale Earnhardt Jr. or Mark Martin. That’s two, but I figure the “The Franchise” David Reutimann will fall out, as will Kasey Kahne.

Jeffrey Gutowski: Mark Martin will make the Chase. He is just too consistent and has great equipment at Hendrick Motorsports.

Eric Brewer: Ryan Newman. I could say Earnhardt Jr. but I’m going with Newman.

Eric McClung: I’ll go a litte deeper and say Brian Vickers. His place in the standings took a hit after poor showings at the short tracks but has been very good at the intermediate tracks– the beef of the schedule. It’s a shame Allmendinger is no longer his teammates, Red Bull has done a great job getting their Cup program off the ground in a pretty short period of time, but passing on Allmendinger could come back to haunt them.

Between battling a robot with a fire extinguisher and being a master genius at guessing auto parts, are Michael Waltrip’s commercials better than his driving?

Ryan Rantz: His commercials are hands down better than his driving ability. They have to be because many of his commercials make a joke out of his driving career.

Darren Fauth: Definitely. He needs to get out of the way on the track. He is always racing the leader when he should be pulling over.

Jeffrey Gutowski: I like Michael Waltrip’s commercials but as I’ve said before, you don’t make it to the Cup series unless you can drive. I think the real problem is that he can’t focus on his driving and running his own team at the same time.

Eric Brewer: This year seems to be different. His teams are running well and his commercials have gotten better.”

Marcos Ambrose – (last season: 21st @ Samsung 500)
At Texas, the Australian has a top-10 in a Nationwide race and finished 21st in his only Cup start. To start the season, Ambrose has finished 22nd or better in four of six races– dependable results for those on the cheap.

AJ Allmendinger – (last season: 26th @ Dickies 500, 2007: 39th @ Dickies 500)
In only two career starts at Texas, Allmendinger has not fared well but don’t read much into that. The No. 44 team may not get a full season in so Allmendinger should carried on your provisional C-List each week in the Yahoo! game.

Martin Truex Jr. – (last season: 14th @ Samsung 500, third @ Dickies 500)
If you are looking make room in salary cap formats, Truex Jr. is a great option. Texas is one of his better tracks– his average finish of 11.0 is fourth-best. Other than his 36th-place finish last season, due to an engine problem, Truex Jr. has never placed worse than 15th.”

Denny Hamlin has vocalized his belief that to be this far in his career, he should have far more checks in the win column. I agree. He’s had quite a few wins that appeared to be in the bag get away from him. This 2nd place finish at Martinsville comes right on the heels a 2nd place finish at Bristol. Mad props go to Denny for the way he handled the loss after the bump by Johnson.

My Martinsville Prediction Results:

• Chevrolet = Jimmie Johnson.
  Jimmie finished 1st and led a total of 42 laps.
• Dodge = Kasey Kahne.
  Kasey finished 19th. He was the 4th best finishing Dodge, one spot behind Kurt Busch.
• Ford = Jamie McMurray.
  Jamie finished 10th and was the best finishing Ford.
• Toyota = Denny Hamlin.
  Denny led the most laps (296) and finished 2nd. He was the best finishing Toyota.
• My Winner = Jeff Gordon. Jeff led 147 laps and finished 4th.

My Texas Predictions for each Manufacturer:

Loop Data Stats give Jimmie Johnson the highest driver rating of the field. However, I think Jeff Gordon is still Chevy’s best hope for a win in Texas. Toss out Jeff’s “pitiful” 13th place finish at Daytona this year and he has a 3.6 average finish this season.

Dodge’s best hope for a win is… well, pretty slim. Neither Kahne nor Allmendinger light up the stats sheets at Texas. Kurt Busch does has 4 top tens at Texas since the Spring race of 2005, so Dodge can rest their hope on his shoulders. There was a lot of tension and frustration between both Kurt and car owner Roger Penske (and the crew chief) last week. Is there more too it than just short track racing?

Look for Matt Kenseth to step back up as Ford’s best hope for a win this weekend. While the last few races have dropped Kenseth off the radar, Texas is a place where Matt performs very well. Six of his last seven Cup races here were top tens, with the 7th race being a 12th place finish. He normally spends over 96% of his laps running in the top 15.

A 37th place finish in the Spring of 2007 interrupts what could have been 5 consecutive finishes of 6th or better at Texas for Kyle Busch. He won the last two Nationwide Series races here, and finished 2nd in the last two Camping World Truck Series races at Texas. Kyle will not only be Toyota’s best hope for a win this weekend, he will also be carrying a special paint scheme to honor Bobby Labonte. There’s bound to be some good Mo-Jo there!

My Pick To Win?

For my pick to win I’m actually going to step away from the stats sheets and what I suspect will be the most common favorites (Johnson, Gordon, Kenseth, Edwards). From out of nowhere I’m going to go with Tony Stewart. In part because from out of nowhere is how Tony’s team been performing thus far this season. Tony won here in 2006 and he has 5 finishes of 11th or better in the last seven races.

Besides that, every time I tried to go with another driver my gut just told me to go with Tony. Be sure to track my progress (or failure as it may become) over on the OneBadWheel.com Experts Picks” page.