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Sleep Analysis: Finding the Michigan Sleepers
A few spicy tidbits to savor while making your Sleeper picks this week.
- Kurt Busch Two wins in his career at the track formerly owned by Roger Penske, including last year's August race.
- David Gilliland In three races he has zero lead lap finishes, a 53.8 driver rating and an average finish of 27.7. He has exceeded most of his numbers this season, but don't expect more than a top 20.
- Jamie McMurray One top 5 and two top 10's in his career. At least he's running a special Father's Day paint scheme this weekend.
- Mark Martin Looking at Martin's entire career Michigan is a phenomenal track for him (4 wins, 16 top 5's, 27 top 10's in 44 career starts). His recent numbers are a little more pedestrian (20.5 average finish, 82.3 driver rating in last six races)
- Elliott Sadler This type of track is usually Gillet-Evernham's specialty. Sadler's career average finish is 24.1 but he does have 3 career top tens including one in his first Evernham start in 2006.
- David Reutimann Two starts with a 59.7 driver rating but a 19.0 average finish. I expect his average finish to stay there and his driver rating to improve. He finished 15th last June.
- Scott Riggs Riggs' one top five was a result of fuel mileage in 2005. His 22.0 average finish and 54.3 driver rating don't stand out either.
- Casey Mears Mears owns an 89.0 driver rating and is one of the top ranked Sleepers at Michigan. In ten career starts he has 1 top five and two top tens, but a tidy 18.5 average finish. Expect him to stay near the front but no closer than 6th or 7th.
- Paul Menard Menard hasn't scored a Cup top ten since Atlanta in 2006 when he was a part time driver. Three Cup starts at Michigan with a high finish of 12th
- Robby Gordon Gordon will have to avoid turning right as he daydreams about Sonoma in two weeks. If you only had one top ten in 16 career starts and a 62.4 driver rating, you'd probably look ahead to a race you can win too.
- Reed Sorenson Sorenson scored his first top 5 in 2006 by gambling in the pits for track position right as a storm rolled in. A rain delay might again be his
bestonly chance for a top finish. - Regan Smith The last two seasons DEI has scored five top tens at Michigan. No, Smith won't add to that number, but it does prove that Smith should have a decent car capable of finishing in the top 20.
- Michael Waltrip Waltrip scored a top ten in last June's race. It was only his third start of 2007. Waltrip will have to make the race on speed among a 46 car field.
- Michael McDowell I'm running out of ways to say he's a rookie with little experience , a mediocre car and probably won't run well. Let's try, McDowell will likely finish ten spots better than I could.
- Dave Blaney Michigan is one of Blaney's better Cup tracks historically (3 top 10's). With great horsepower from Toyota he could be strong at Michigan.
- Sam Hornish Jr Hornish is quickly figuring out stock cars, although Pocono was a harsh reminder of how tough it can be. Michigan is a familiar track which can only help.
- JJ Yeley Yeley won the pole in 2007 but does not have a top ten in four starts. He missed the Pocono race and can't be considered a good play at any track.
- AJ Allmendinger Allmendinger has really improved over the last month, winning the All-Star Open race, running well for most of the Dover race and then having to settle for a 12th at Pocono. Michigan could be a nice track for Allmendinger, but beware of young drivers. They often lack the consistency to follow up strong runs.
- Patrick Carpentier First career start at Michigan and nothing is expected.
- Terry Labonte Labonte will likely utilize his past champion provisional to land a spot in the race. He hasn't raced at Michigan since 2004 and will be driving arguably the worst car of 2008.
- Bill Elliott Awesome Bill has a great record at Michigan with seven wins, 17 top 5's and 29 top 10's. The problem is that Elliott will have to make the race on speed, which has been a challenge for the Wood Brothers this year.
Champs, Chumps & Sleepers
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| 2008 NASCAR Points Outside Top 20 | |||||||
| Rk | Driver | Points | Back | W | 5 | 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Elliott Sadler | 3026 | -2852 | 0 | 2 | 8 | |
| 22 | Casey Mears | 2932 | -2946 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| 23 | Juan Pablo Montoya | 2902 | -2976 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| 24 | David Reutimann | 2892 | -2986 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 25 | Travis Kvapil | 2871 | -3007 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 26 | Paul Menard | 2744 | -3134 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 27 | David Gilliland | 2738 | -3140 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 28 | Mark Martin | 2677 | -3201 | 0 | 4 | 11 | |
| 29 | Michael Waltrip | 2506 | -3372 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 30 | Reed Sorenson | 2499 | -3379 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 31 | Dave Blaney | 2438 | -3440 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 32 | Robby Gordon | 2402 | -3476 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 33 | Scott Riggs | 2400 | -3478 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 34 | Regan Smith | 2346 | -3532 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 | Sam Hornish Jr | 2213 | -3665 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 | AJ Allmendinger | 1867 | -4011 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 37 | Joe Nemechek | 1814 | -4064 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 38 | Patrick Carpentier | 1794 | -4084 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 39 | Michael McDowell | 1466 | -4412 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 40 | JJ Yeley | 1263 | -4615 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 41 | Bill Elliott | 1091 | -4787 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 42 | Aric Almirola | 909 | -4969 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 43 | Kyle Petty | 833 | -5045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
 Complete NASCAR Point Standings | |||||||
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