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Sorting Out The Sleepers
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Sorting Out The Sleepers
The biggest pool of drivers in the Champs, Chumps and Sleepers game is the Sleepers. Drivers currently above 21st in the driver points standings fall into this category. So how do you wade through more than 20 imperfect choices to find two decent ones?
It's a little like a used car lot. They all have something to offer, but they each have drawbacks too. Do you go for the inconsistent, but talented driver that has the potential for a top ten, or the mediocre veteran that won't wreck, but probably won't finish better than the teens?
First Things First
The first thing to do is throw out the drivers outside the top 35. You can't afford to pick a driver that may not qualify for the race. Even if these drivers do make the race, none have shown the ability to get a sniff of the lead pack. That means scratching Sam Hornish Jr, Dario Franchitti, Dave Blaney, Kyle Petty, Joe Nemechek and Mike Skinner off the list.
Before you get too excited about scratching drivers, be careful not to cross off too many at the bottom. Mark Martin and Bill Elliott are both guaranteed to make the race at Texas and we'll look at each later.
The next thing to do is group the remaining 17 drivers in a few handy categories.
The Underachievers
(Casey Mears, Reed Sorenson, Jamie McMurray) These are drivers that are top 20 drivers and can run well at Texas, and have the equipment to do so. They are definitely capable of a top ten run. So far this year they haven't done well at intermediate tracks and that's the risk. The ceiling is high, but are you willing to risk McMurray laying another egg?
The Grinders
(Scott Riggs, Travis Kvapil, Paul Menard) This group makes up some of the blue collar drivers of NASCAR in the sense that they show up each week, turn laps and avoid trouble. The finishes aren't spectacular but they do have the ability to run in the teens and with a few breaks can score a top ten at Texas. Menard has especially shown improvement in recent weeks.
The Cagey Veterans
(Mark Martin, Bobby Labonte, Michael Waltrip, Bill Elliott) The guys that know how to get it done, but the equipment hasn't been there in recent years. They usually avoid trouble, but you probably won't see any of them lead laps or score top fives.
The Can-ifs
(JJ Yeley, Jeremy Mayfield, David Gilliland, Regan Smith, Michael McDowell) These guys can run well if a lot of things go right. They don't have elite equipment, haven't had previous success at Texas and there isn't a lot of evidence of future success. Still, they each will make the field and you never know.
The Epitome of Wildcard
(Robby Gordon) Only Robby Gordon can get his own classification. Texas has more real estate than Martinsville so there is more room to avoid cars and hence the corresponding trouble. Gordon has the talent and cars to run in the top 15, but he also has the short fuse to cancel it all out.
Picking From the Groups
Not it's time to build your Sleeper portfolio. Like any good portfolio, the key is diversity. You want to make sure you have at least on driver that will record a decent to solid finish. That's where the Grinders and Cagey Veterans play. Mark Martin has an 86.3 driver rating at Texas over the last 6 races. He nearly won the fall 2005 race and will be back in DEI's #8 car this weekend after a two race break. Bobby Labonte has had solid, if not spectacular runs so far this year. He can still drive, but it's more a matter of whether the car will cooperate. Menard and Riggs are also capable of good finishes at Texas. Riggs had a 91.1 driver rating at a race in 2006 and has shown speed at similar tracks.
The second roster spot is where you might consider taking a bigger risk. Jamie McMurray has had good runs in the past at Texas, but right now the #26 team's intermediate speedway program is broken. They haven't run well at the first three speedway races this year and it's hard to imagine a top ten at Martinsville will change anything. However, if he does figure out whatever is working for his teammates, he has a serious chance at a top five.
Robby Gordon might be a play. Evernham has improved over last year and Gordon could take advantage. The two drivers that really have a shot at a good run in Texas are Reed Sorenson and Casey Mears. Sorenson is a top 20 driver at Texas and often thrives at mile and a half tracks, but he's also very prone to crashing. Mears has an average rating of 87.3, good for twelfth best at Texas.
Champs, Chumps & Sleepers
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