Predicting success in th CoT

The CoT runs full time in 2008, rendering predictions less predictable. Who will be the best teams with the larger, slower, “suckier” (Kyle Busch’s paraphrased words, not mine) car? The easy answer is the teams that are the top teams no matter the model, but introducing the CoT to the aero-sensitive intermediate tracks is a real wild card.

Factors for Success

There are two things that will determine which teams will show up at California with confidence. One is the testing done over the winter, on six-post shakers, in wind tunnels and at tracks like Kentucky, Nashville and Iowa. This progress is hard for a lowly blogger to gauge.

The other is looking at last year’s CoT results in the select races it ran and pulling out the teams that enjoyed success. It’s not perfect, but logic says a team like Hendrick or Penske that has already ironed out the major kinks in the CoT at short tracks has a leg up. They can spend 2008 perfecting that program and also transfer this information to their speedway programs. Plus in the case of Hendrick or Gibbs, the top teams tend to stay on top because they have the best personnel, thickest data, and deepest resources to stay there.

2008 CoT and Aero

Before we dive in, a few notes. Nearly all of the CoT races in 2007 were run on tracks with little or no dependency on aerodynamics. Places like Martinsville, Bristol, Richmond and even Darlington place a greater emphasis on driver skill. That also makes it harder to make predictions from 2007’s numbers. Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart will almost always trump David Gilliland or Tony Raines at Martinsville no matter the car. The same would not necessarily hold true at Texas or California. 16 races is also not a very big sample size, but it’s better than nothing. With those exceptions, it’s time to peek at the numbers.

First let’s look at which teams had the best averages with the CoT in 2007. Hendrick is obviously the alpha dog with 9 wins in the Cot. Three of their four drivers won a race with the new model and their combined average was 10.8. That was also nearly 4 places better than their 14.4 speedway/old car average. In short, Hendrick had it going on when it came to NASCAR’s new project.

Top 3 CoT Teams

Three teams followed Hendrick in a close pack: RCR, Gibbs and Penske Racing all had average finishes between 14.2 and 15.8. DEI and Roush(18.4) were the only other two teams with cumulative averages under 20. Aside from the mild surprise of Penske, all the top teams are represented on this list.

The next step is to give more weight to performances at the end of the season. Roush Racing initially struggled with the CoT, but by the end of the season their drivers had mostly returned to their familiar positions at the front. Matt Kenseth is exhibit A of this.

Kenseth’s overall numbers show a tidy 14.5 average finish in the CoT, but splitting up the season shows a different story. He led 35 laps in the first 12 CoT and had 2 top 5’s. In the final four CoT races he led 285 laps with 2 top 5’s. Obviously #17 team improved the program as the year progressed. Teammate Carl Edwards also had a similar arc to his season as witnessed by his two CoT wins in August and September.

When I first began researching the CoT results from this past year, I was hoping to find that some teams had dramatically different results between the two makes of car. Only 5 teams had an improvement of 3 places or better in the CoT: Waltrip Racing, Haas-CNC, Gibbs, Hall of Fame and Hendrick. On first glance Haas and Hall of Fame look like surprises, but considering they are both sattellite teams of Hendrick and Gibbs respectively, the numbers make sense. The biggest surprise is Waltrip’s outfit. They were the only Toyota team to have better numbers in the CoT, but keep in mind it’s an improvement from 30.3 in the old car to 27.3 in the CoT. Not exactly brilliant.

Some Things Don’t Change

The primary lesson I learned, and it’s a dull conclusion, is that the big teams were best with the old car, the first year of the CoT and will likely be best in a full season with the CoT. Given time the smaller teams will catch up, but don’t expect it in 2008.

2007 Average Finishes in the CoT