An in-depth look at Dale Earnhardt Jr and how he might work on your fantasy NASCAR team for 2008.

[Warning: This preview only covers aspects of Dale Earnhardt Jr's 2008 racing season and therefore will sidestep any non-racing drama, theatrics or further mentions of family relationships.] You don’t have to be a hard core NASCAR fan to know that Dale Earnhardt Jr is heading to a new team in 2008. The team, sponsors and number are all new, but what everyone really wants to see is a return to his old, frontrunning ways with some wins mixed in. The NASCAR question of the year requires a whale of an answer: How will Dale Jr do with Hendrick Motorsports?

The answers vary as much as fans’ opinions on Junior’s move to Hendrick itself.

• “He’ll be an instant champion.
• “He’s overrated no matter where he is.
• “He’ll be overshadowed by Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson.

It’s always hard to guess how a new driver will adapt to a new team, so instead of guessing, let’s look at some stats.

Based on the last three years, the third Hendrick team’s numbers went like this. I used the last three seasons because the third team prior to 2005 was driven by either Terry Labonte in the twilight of his career or rookie Brian Vickers. It wasn’t a very good indicator of the third car’s potential.

Dale Jr’s stats 2003-2007

Looking at his win%, t5% and t10%, his career numbers look like this:

2005: 2 wins, 9 top 5’s, 13 top 10’s. Keep in mind that was Kyle Busch’s rookie season.

2006: 1 win, 10 t5’s, 18 top 10’s

2007: 1 win, 11 t5’s, 20 t10’s

We can also look at driver ratings:

Jr’s 2007 93.2 driver rating was 8th best, better than four drivers that made the Chase. This shows a few things. One, he was running inside the top 10 on a consistent basis. The other point to note is that this rating was pulled down by his rash of engine failures. He was actually closer to 5th or 6th on a weekly basis.

Kyle Busch posted a 97.8 rating.

The final thing to look at is any differences between the two companies.

Engine reliability:

Importing Tony Eury Jr to remain as Earnhardt’s crew chief is huge bonus in the transition. The fact that Eury began working Hendrick prior to November accelerates the process even quicker. Eury is widely respected as one of the top crew chiefs at the Cup level and most crucially, has a good understanding of what Earnhardt needs. When Junior screams over his radio about a tight condition, Eury can interpret the changes needed based on the octave of Earnhardt’s screams. Few crew chief/driver combinations can communicate on such an unconventional level. Aside from the obvious technical improvements that Hendrick can offer, the attention to detail attitude of the company could also help eliminate some of the mental mistakes that have cost the Juniors in the past.

How well will Junior do?

Kyle Busch’s numbers are a pretty good baseline. 1-2 wins, 10 top 5’s and 20 top 10’s. Eury Jr said they will win 4 races, but that’s a stretch. The only year Earnhardt has won 4 or more races was 2004. It’s a big leap to go from 1 race to 4 or 5, even for a driver as talented as Earnhardt is. 10 top 5’s would mean that he’s running at the front often enough to be in position to win and 20 top 10’s would surely equal a Chase berth.

Earnhardt Jr is best known for his command at restrictor plate tracks, but he is pretty well rounded. Talladega and Daytona are great tracks, but he is also an elite driver at Bristol, Atlanta, Texas, Richmond and Martinsville. He has also worked hard to improve as a road racer. He ran inside the top 5 at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen all afternoon and fuel mileage and a blown engine spoiled his respective runs.

One argument detractors make is that Earnhardt Jr will have to beat his new teammates in order to have success. That is no different than last year, except now he is on an even field equipment-wise. A driver will always have to beat 42 other cars in order to win a race or a Cup title.

See our complete Dale Earnhardt Jr NASCAR Statistics.