2008 NASCAR Fantasy Draft Kit: Roush Fenway Racing

An in-depth look at Roush Fenway racing and how their drivers might work on your fantasy NASCAR team for 2008.

2007: What Happened

Roush-Fenway Racing combined to win the second most races and had two drivers make the Chase but still fell short of expectations. Greg Biffle and Jamie McMurray both spent the season fighting inconsistency. Matt Kenseth was never in danger of missing the Chase, but also never looked like a threat to win until it was too late. David Ragan was thrown in the deep end and had lots of struggles, but hints of his potential were also seen.

Roush drummed up a surplus of financial muscle when he merged with John Henry to form Roush-Fenway Racing, a deal that took nearly three years to finalize. The merger didn’t have immediate benefits, but the long term payoffs could be enormous.

2007: What Went Well

Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards combined for five wins and both made the Chase. Kenseth finished the season on fire with five straight top fives and a dominating win at Homestead. Edwards rebounded from a disappointing 2006 to post three wins and the accompanying backflips. That was especially good news for his motorcoach driver Tom Giacchi.

Elsewhere, Jamie McMurray won his first race in almost five years at the Pepsi 400 in July. Greg Biffle’s win at Kansas was his fifth straight season with at least one win. Rookie David Ragan began the year with a 5th place at Daytona and later scored a 3rd place at Richmond.

2007: What Went Wrong

The team really struggled with the CoT. Kenseth and McMurray’s averages were significantly worse in the CoT compared to the old car. The team admitted it didn’t test as much as other Cup teams and the initial results reflected that. By the summer, the organization had regained most of the ground they had lost, but with the CoT featuring exclusively in 2008, they cannot afford similar stumbles.

Biffle’s team was assembled in the hopes of competing for a championship. Things didn’t work and crew chief Pat Tryson left the team for Penske in the summer. Biffle didn’t score consecutive top tens until September, and only won the one race at Kansas. Maybe the most telling stat was his meager 78 laps led. He led over 900 laps in each of the previous seasons.

Meanwhile McMurray celebrated his first win at Roush with five straight finishes of 30th or worse. That quickly dashed any visions of the #26 car making the Chase. McMurray has the talent to win at almost every track, but still struggles to simply run in the top ten on most weekends.

Ragan assumed the seat of the #6 car that Mark Martin had made legendary. After a surprise top 5 a Daytona, Ragan’s season was filled with several tough days. He “led” the tour with 22 crashes, according to USA Today.

2008 Fantasy Outlook

Roush-Fenway might have started slowly on the CoT, but by the end of the season they were back to being one of the top teams in NASCAR. A big move was promoting crew chief Robbie Reiser to GM. Reiser has long been considered one of the top crew chiefs in the sport and now all five Roush teams will have access to his skill and knowledge.

The organization is well rounded at most tracks, but the cars really shine at the high speed 1.5 and 2 mile tracks. Michigan and California are especially strong for the team (15 combined wins).

The obvious question mark for the #17 team is how Kenseth will do without Reiser on the pit box. Kenseth didn’t seem too concerned about anything changing, and I agree. Kenseth is a threat to win at most speedway tracks, is a very underrated plate racer and also excels at short tracks like Bristol, Dover and Phoenix. He might not win as much as Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon or Tony Stewart, but Kenseth cranks out just as many top fives and top tens on a yearly basis. He and Johnson are the only two drivers to make the Chase every year, and there’s no reason why that will stop in 2008. 2 wins, 12 top fives and 18-20 top tens might seem like a special season, but then you realize that’s standard fare for Kenseth.

Greg Biffle is widely considered one of the most talented Cup drivers on the tour. So why has he missed the Chase the last two years and hasn’t come close to his 2005 production? For one, Biffle didn’t get the cars in 2007 that he did in 2005. Another factor was that some of his best tracks (Dover, Michigan, Darlington) are typically places where hot, slippery conditions cater to Biffle’s driving style. Unfortunately there were several rain-delayed races that cancelled out this kind of advantage. Biffle also had 11 crashes during the season, the most since his rookie season. He is still a threat to win at places like Bristol, Darlington, Texas and Homestead, but the Chase might be out of reach. A probable line looks like 2 wins, 6 top 5′s and 12-14 top 10′s.

Carl Edwards has a very concrete strength. In 2007 he won at Bristol and Dover, plus a Busch win at Nashville. There is something about that surface for Cousin Carl. Of course he runs pretty well at a lot of other tracks too. Darlington, Texas, Atlanta, and Michigan all fall in Edwards’ wheelhouse. Edwards is good enough to make the Chase and win 2-3 races each year, 10 top 5′s and 15 top 10′s.

Aside from an outstanding 2004, Jamie McMurray has posted virtually the same stats each season. There is no evidence that 2008 will be any different. It’s a little puzzling considering his talent. He is capable of winning on nearly any type of track and yet he rarely runs up front. He got a free pass at Ganassi because the equipment was second rate, but he is now in his third season at Roush and the results still look the same. That means he will finish with 3-4 top 5′s, 10-12 top 10′s and be in the top 15-18 in points. That said he probably won’t be considered a marquee driver in fantasy games so he’s a good pick at places like restrictor plate tracks, California, and a sleeper pick for road courses.

When it comes to analyzing David Ragan, the biggest thing to remember is that he’s 21. He had two top fives in 2007, and doubling that tally is realistic. His progress throughout the season was apparent. He improved several of his results on the second visit to tracks. With so few starts, it’s hard to identify Ragan’s best tracks. Based on Roush’s strengths, he should have good cars at places like Fontana, Michigan, Atlanta and Texas.