“I must say I was somewhat impressed with the top ten finish from Mark Martin in Bristol. Don’t get me wrong, I have no doubt about his ability. But Mark sat out the last four Cup races at Bristol and his previous 12 attempts left him with 23.9 average finish position.

Mark got off on the right foot though by claiming the pole– his second straight pole this year as a matter of fact! In an interview before the race Mark even commented on how long it had been since he had back-to-back poles. The last time was in 1989 when he got them at Darlington and Bristol. In case you’re wondering, Mark finished 6th in that ‘89 Bristol race just as he did in this race.

My Bristol Prediction Results:

Ford = Matt Kenseth. Matt finished 33rd.
Chevrolet = Jeff Gordon. Jeff finished 4th.
Toyota = Denny Hamlin. Denny finished 2nd.
Dodge = Kurt Busch. Kurt finished 11th.

Last week Jeff Gordon was my pick to win Bristol. While he came through with a 4th place finish and moved me to the top of the Experts Picks” standings [I'm gonna enjoy it while I can! :) ], I really thought Gordon would have been up there battling for the lead the entire race. Still, after falling behind towards the end, the #24 team made some adjustments and Gordon was able to move back up into the top 5.

My Martinsville Predictions for each Manufacturer:

If you’re looking for races to save an “A” driver such as Kenseth, Edwards or Biffle, then Martinsville could be a place for you to consider using Jamie McMurray. He actually has a higher driver rating at Martinsville than all of his Roush teammates! This in part due to six of his ten starts here resulting in top ten finishes. It’s still very hard not to go with Matt Kenseth here. You’ll likely end up with a finish around 8th-13th. I’m gonna take a bit of a gamble here though and hope that Jamie’s road course racing skills help him at Martinsville to be Ford’s best hope for a win.

Martinsville Speedway has been Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson’s personal sandbox, and they don’t like other driver’s bringing their toys there. Loop data stats for both drivers are very close with the edge going to Jimmie Johnson. Jimmie just barely beats Jeff in points, average running position, and driver rating. The numbers say Jimmie Johnson is Chevy’s best hope for the win.

Denny Hamlin is the defending race winner for the Spring Martinsville race. With seven career starts here, Denny has finished in the top ten in all but one race (crashed out in Spring of ‘06). Four of those top tens were top five finishes. Kyle may have won Bristol, but Denny’s second place finish there combined with his Martinsville track record means Denny is once again my pick for Toyota’s best hope for a win.

[Edited] Well, as “BUDWRENCH” pointed out below, JPM is no longer in a Dodge. So he can’t be their best hope for a win. I can’t believe I made that mistake! “BUDWRENCH” also says Kurt Busch would be the best Dodge driver here, but I’m not sure. If we’re going on current season performance, then maybe. But if you look a the last couple years here Kasey Kahne is the better pick for Dodge. Kahne has better average finish and more points collected on average. Both Kasey and Kurt start in the top ten and both ended the only practice session within just a few positions of one another. Therefore, I’m going to go with Kahne here. He has quietly put up four consecutive top 12 finishes in the last four races. The last two events (Atlanta & Bristol) he posted a 7th and 5th place finish, respectively.

My Pick To Win?

“Super G”!!! I heard the race commentators call Jeff Gordon that today and thought it was pretty funny. The loop data numbers may have Jimmie Johnson barely (and I mean by a hair) edging out Jeff Gordon at Martinsville, but I just don’t care. Jeff is leading the points, he’s been cracking off top 5s faster than Jimmy Spencer can pop a shirt button, and I think Jimmie’s monopoly on Martinsville wins has come to an end… at least for this week.

Now I have to get my race pick in early in the week, and to show my pick had some thought put into it, consider the following. Gordon has 8 career poles here and two of them came in the last 3 races here. Furthermore, Gordon is leading the points and as of this writing there is a 40% chance of rain projected for Friday. So, if qualifying is canceled Gordon will get the pole and the first pit box selection. Either way, there’s a good chance Jeff will start on the pole. Starting up front and prime pit selection could help give “Super G” the win!”