Carl Edwards (6 wins, 11 top 5′s, 19 top 10′s, 105.6 driver rating)
Why He’s Here: Six backflips plus four 2nd place runs mean Cousin Carl has been a front runner all season. He has only led 636 laps (less than Dale Earnhardt Jr), but he makes them count. While one of his wins won’t count towards his Chase points, he still begins in 2nd place only 30 behind Kyle Busch. After a lackluster 2007, all of the Roush cars(well, except for Jamie McMurray) have rebounded on the intermediate tracks.
Best Tracks: Edwards has been spectacular at the intermediate tracks all season. Five of his six wins have come at the high speed, downforce-intense tracks like Las Vegas, Texas and Michigan. With half of the Chase schedule comprised of 1.5 mile tracks, this will suit Edwards nicely. He also runs well at Dover and Phoenix.
Achilles Heel: Two tracks represent the major hurdles for Edwards’ title hopes. When it comes to Talladega, the Roush cars have not been as fast as the Chevy’s and Toyota’s at restrictor plate tracks. Edwards is certainly capable of finding his way to the front of the draft, but Roush’s lesser plate car also leaves him susceptible to the Big One. Edwards’ other rough patch is the paperclip-shaped Martinsville track. He has only one top ten in eight career starts and zero laps led. Not only are these two tracks question marks for Edwards, but they are also excellent tracks for his nearest rivals, Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson.
Outlook: Some drivers are capable of racking up top tens and top fives, but Edwards is capable of winning several races. It’s the difference of a football team that relies on a strong ground game compared to one with a vertical passing game. A deep threat covers up a lot of other weaknesses. Because of that factor Edwards has a great chance to win the Chase.