Don’t listen to DW, Jimmie Johnson doesn’t not have to worry about Homestead. Darrell Waltrip says Sunday’s race is filled with dangers for the #48 team and it’s the race of their lives. The reality is the only thing that will doom Johnson is an early wreck or an engine failure. A mistake on pit road or coming in for a flat tire are not going to relegate Johnson to a 36th place finish. Practice doesn’t matter, qualifying doesn’t matter (although another pole for Johnson would likely grant another 5 points), emotions don’t matter, the only thing that matters is finishing the race. In the nine previous Homestead races, the 36th place car has never finished better than three laps down. In many cases the 36th place car finished more than 20 laps behind the leaders. With one of the most thorough, no-stone-unturned crew chief in Chad Knaus inspecting the car, it’s a safe bet that the #48 will not have a sour engine and won’t suffer a parts failure. Anyone that tells you otherwise is either trying to create drama that isn’t there or hasn’t been watching the Lowe’s car for the last five years. They rarely beat themselves.

What Happened Last Year

With the points battle essentially settled, Jimmie Johnson took it easy all afternoon to avoid trouble. Taking it easy for teh #48 team meant a 7th place finish. That opened the door for someone else to win. Matt Kenseth stomped the field to win his second race of the season. He led 214 of 267 laps and easily held off Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin.

Other Thoughts and Notes

• Red Bull is switching their drivers for the final race. Because of the owners points situation Scott Speed will drive the #83, which is safely in the top 35 and Brian Vickers will try to pass the #47 team for 35th place in the owners points. What happens if Vickers can’t qualify the #84? Will Speed still drive Vickers’ normal car? Also, where was I when JTG-Daugherty Racing acquired the #00’s owners points? That’s a brilliant move if Marcos Ambrose can stay inside the top 35. I think Ambrose and the #47 team could be a nice surprise in 2009. If Boris Said can’t get a full time ride, Ambrose might be the next best thing.

• Furniture Row Racing is cutting back to a part time schedule next year. Economic downturn and all that jazz. It’s really a shame because they had a really nice year for a one car team. They qualified not one, but two teams for the Daytona 500, Joe Nemechek won the pole at Talladega and registered three top 20’s. Nemechek has always overachieved a little given his equipment and it’s really a shame that he can’t find a better ride. I’m pretty sure he would have done better more than several drivers that had fulltime rides this year.

• Gillett-Evernham have landed sponsorship for Reed Sorenson’s ride next year. Air Force, which always features the coolest, yet cleanest, paint schemes will adorn the #10 car next year. Remember two or three years ago when companies were tripping over each other to get into NASCAR sponsorship? Now it’s a case of the top teams (Hendrick, Gibbs, Roush, RCR and Evernham) pulling traditional NASCAR sponsors away from other struggling teams. It’s not a new concept in racing, but it once again illustrates how rapidly things have changed in NASCAR. As an aside, is it a good idea for the Air Force to sponsor someone who crashes at high speeds on a regular basis? I’m sure they did their due diligence.

Who Will Win?

I’ve seen multiple people say that Jeff Gordon will win this week. Aside from the fact that he’s 0-35 this year, what reason does he have a chance? The #24’s speedway program is wildly inconsistent. Others look to the Roush stable, which makes a ton of sense since they’ve accounted for the last four winners and 9 top 5’s in the last four years. That includes a 1-2-3-4 finish in 2005. I’m tempted to say David Ragan, but we’ll save that pick for next year. For now, I’m going to go with Dale Earnhardt Jr. It’s crazy, it’s flying in the face of reason, but in a year of struggles for the sport, imagine the unfettered hope a Jr win would bring to the cold winter months. Enjoy the race.