“Now that we’re finally into the Chase it’s time to get down to business. It’s easy to think anyone has a chance, but what does it really take to win the Chase? How many points is the realistic target for a Champion driver? In the short four year Chase era every champion driver has averaged at least 143 points per race. Excluding Jimmie Johnson’s ridiculous and perhaps unmatched performance last year where he averaged 166 points per race (in other words 4th place and a lap led in all ten races), the model for a successful Chase run is to average a finish between 7th and 8th over the ten races. 8th place pays 142 points per race. If you could manage to lead a lap each race and finish in 7th or 8th place in all ten races, it’s a decent recipe for a Chase title run.
Of course, as Elvis Costello says, accidents will happen. That means that consistency isn’t enough, you need to have the cars to win races too. It’s like the football team that has a bruising running game (maybe that team even has Adrian Peterson). That can get you so far, but at some point you face a situation that needs more than five yards. That’s where a downfield passing game is the only option (and if you have Tarvaris Jackson you realize how rough that can be).
That is why Matt Kenseth lost the 2006 Chase. He had the consistency (no finish worse than 23rd, 5 top 10′s), but only two top 5′s and no finish better than 4th. That opened the door to Jimmie Johnson who began the Chase with finishes of 39th, 13th, 14th and 24th, but came roaring back with 5 straight top 2 finishes to claim the Cup.
This brings us to Kyle Busch. A 34th place finish was certainly frustrating for the #18 team, but when you look at the math, it’s not as bad as it seems. Based on three of the past four seasons(admittedly a small sample size), the magic points number is somewhere between 6475 and 6553 to win the Chase (about 148-150 points per race). Busch began the Chase with 80 points from his wins and scored 66 points at Loudon. In other words he has 146 points through one race. So he’s still very much on pace to average 148 points per race. While not the ideal start for Busch, he’s going to run and finish up front enough over the next nine races that finishing better than 8th place shouldn’t be a problem.
As we progress further in the Chase, use the quick rule of 148. Is a driver on pace to average an 8th place finish the rest of the way? Do they have tracks that they can bank on finishing in the top 5? If the answer to either question is “no”, then it’s unlikely that driver will be around at Homestead with any chance of winning the Chase. No matter how consistent they are.”