“We looked at this odd grouping of similar NASCAR tracks just a couple of weeks ago when NASCAR raced in Las Vegas. Our percentage of close calls wasn’t too bad. 12 of the 41 participating drivers in our list finished within five spots of where the similar track averages placed them. And, that included a variety of A-List drivers like Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick and Greg Biffle as well as B & C-List drivers like AJ Allmendinger, Paul Menard & Joe Nemechek.
23 of our 41 drivers finished within ten spots of where our similar track averages placed them. That’s 56%.
Similar Track Concept
The theory behind this chart is that there are similar tracks (aka sister tracks) within the NASCAR schedule in terms of banking, distance and shape that a driver may excel at.
What Have You Done For Me Lately?
I am prone to look at a drivers performance more recently then over their career. So, this table is sorted by 2008 averages rather then over the length of the drivers career. That stat is still in the table though.
The Tracks
This week’s race is at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN. So, the similar tracks we are going to look at are: Bristol, Las Vegas, Homestead-Miami, Darlington & Dover.
The Similarities
This may seem like an odd combination of tracks. It is the ‘loosest’ of all our are similar track associations. I group these tracks together though based on these similarities: They are all relatively steeply-banked tracks ranging from 20° – 25°’s with Bristol all the way up to 36°. These tracks don’t adhere to the typical cookie-cutter design like Texas, Charlotte & Atlanta. Some are concrete (Bristol and Dover) and some are former flat tracks converted to a steeper banking (Homestead-Miami and Las Vegas). Historically, this group of tracks have worked out well together.
By the way, this table also shows the drivers median finish which I think is better than the average.
* Take these drivers with a grain of salt. Logano’s only race in our similar tracks was the Vegas race a few weeks ago. Kvapil didn’t race Las Vegas this year and only accomplished an average finish of 25.5 at Bristol last year. Scott Speed only has this year’s Vegas start and only one short track race at the Cup level which was Martinsville last year where he finished 30th.
| Rank | Driver | Bristol | Vegas | Miami | Darlington | Dover | Starts | Avg | ’08/’09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carl Edwards | 12.0 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 33 | 8.2 | 4.6 |
| 2 | Jeff Gordon | 7.0 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 90 | 6.7 | 8.3 |
| 3 | Kyle Busch | 8.5 | 6.0 | 29.0 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 30 | 12.7 | 11.5 |
| 4 | Clint Bowyer | 7.5 | 21.5 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 22 | 12.8 | 12.4 |
| 5 | Joey Logano* | 0.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| 6 | Travis Kvapil* | 22.0 | 26.0 | 29.5 | 30.0 | 22.0 | 22 | 25.9 | 13.1 |
| 7 | Kevin Harvick | 4.0 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 15.5 | 19.5 | 61 | 11.7 | 14.8 |
| 8 | Matt Kenseth | 9.0 | 11.0 | 21.0 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 72 | 13.6 | 15.0 |
| 9 | Greg Biffle | 9.5 | 7.5 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 46 | 9.8 | 15.1 |
| 10 | Denny Hamlin | 10.0 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 24.5 | 23 | 11.8 | 16.1 |
| 11 | Jamie McMurray | 18.0 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 14.0 | 46 | 14.9 | 16.3 |
| 12 | Jeff Burton | 12.5 | 6.5 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 90 | 10.2 | 16.8 |
| 13 | Martin Truex Jr | 26.5 | 17.5 | 8.0 | 14.0 | 9.5 | 23 | 15.1 | 16.9 |
| 14 | David Ragan | 23.5 | 37.0 | 17.0 | 16.0 | 18.0 | 16 | 22.3 | 17.1 |
| 15 | Jimmie Johnson | 16.0 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 54 | 9.1 | 17.2 |
| 16 | Kasey Kahne | 16.5 | 8.5 | 16.0 | 16.5 | 28.5 | 37 | 17.2 | 17.7 |
| 17 | Mark Martin | 14.5 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 85 | 8.9 | 18.2 |
| 18 | Dale Earnhardt Jr | 9.0 | 13.5 | 21.0 | 10.5 | 18.5 | 69 | 14.5 | 18.4 |
| 19 | Scott Speed* | 0.0 | 21.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| 20 | David Gilliland | 30.0 | 21.0 | 32.0 | 25.0 | 24.0 | 18 | 26.4 | 19.7 |
| 21 | Tony Stewart | 15.0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 77 | 10.9 | 20.3 |
| 22 | Dave Blaney | 29.5 | 26.0 | 22.0 | 26.5 | 25.0 | 60 | 25.8 | 20.7 |
| 23 | David Reutimann | 22.5 | 20.5 | 22.5 | 26.0 | 18.0 | 11 | 21.9 | 20.8 |
| 24 | Juan Pablo Montoya | 18.0 | 22.0 | 17.0 | 23.0 | 21.5 | 16 | 20.3 | 21.5 |
| 25 | Ryan Newman | 15.5 | 14.0 | 21.0 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 54 | 12.8 | 22.1 |
| 26 | Bobby Labonte | 21.5 | 12.5 | 17.5 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 90 | 15.9 | 23.1 |
| 27 | Casey Mears | 31.0 | 13.0 | 21.0 | 34.5 | 21.5 | 45 | 24.2 | 24.4 |
| 28 | Scott Riggs | 24.5 | 29.0 | 14.5 | 30.0 | 24.5 | 34 | 24.5 | 24.7 |
| 29 | Brian Vickers | 20.0 | 23.0 | 33.0 | 24.0 | 21.0 | 36 | 24.2 | 24.9 |
| 30 | Kurt Busch | 9.0 | 20.0 | 21.0 | 12.5 | 18.0 | 62 | 16.1 | 25.2 |
| 31 | Bill Elliott | 19.0 | 14.0 | 17.0 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 59 | 15.8 | 25.3 |
| 32 | AJ Allmendinger | 35.0 | 33.0 | 11.0 | 31.5 | 35.0 | 11 | 29.1 | 26.3 |
| 33 | Michael Waltrip | 22.0 | 22.0 | 35.0 | 25.0 | 22.5 | 85 | 25.3 | 27.3 |
| 34 | Regan Smith | 25.0 | 26.5 | 34.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 9 | 28.7 | 27.7 |
| 35 | Robby Gordon | 26.5 | 26.5 | 27.0 | 28.0 | 22.0 | 61 | 26.0 | 27.9 |
| 36 | Paul Menard | 24.0 | 32.0 | 30.0 | 33.5 | 21.0 | 14 | 28.1 | 28.0 |
| 37 | Aric Almirola | 13.0 | 40.0 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6 | 29.3 | 28.2 |
| 38 | Elliott Sadler | 24.0 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 78 | 23.4 | 30.1 |
| 39 | Reed Sorenson | 33.5 | 32.5 | 25.0 | 32.0 | 26.5 | 23 | 29.9 | 30.1 |
| 40 | Marcos Ambrose | 0.0 | 20.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 3 | 31.3 | 31.3 |
| 41 | Sam Hornish Jr | 33.0 | 28.5 | 37.0 | 38.0 | 30.0 | 8 | 33.3 | 32.4 |
| 42 | Joe Nemechek | 27.0 | 19.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 26.0 | 83 | 22.8 | 34.9 |