I’ve been overanalyzing Tony Stewart’s performance for the 2006 NASCAR Nextel Cup season. I’ve got an odd sort of shock over him not making the Chase.
I’m seeing 7 specific races that really knocked him out of contention for back to back championships. Of course, a few spots better in any one or combination of races (or just a little more remodeling) over the season and he would be ahead of Kasey Kahne for 10th place.
Below Average Finishes
If Tony had been running par with his averages over the last 4 years, his point total after Richmond would be 3417. Enough to put him solidly in the Chase For The Nextel Cup.
The table below is a summary of Tony’s performance this year as compared to his averages over the last 4 years. You’ll see his average finish position & points. Following that is his 2006 finish position.
The + / – column is how many positions off his average finish he was. The ‘Off Average’ column is a cumulative total of how off he was throughout the progressing NASCAR race season.
When Good Race Tracks Go Bad
The ‘Chase Killers’ for Tony this year were: California Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Lowes Motor Speedway, Dover International Speedway, Michigan International Speedway, Chicagoland Speedway & New Hampshire Speedway.
Each of these tracks, except for Lowe’s & New Hampshire, are historically good tracks for The Home Depot team.
| Tony Stewarts 2006 NASCAR Season vs. 4 year Averages | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Track | Average Finish | Average Points | 2006 Finish | + / - | Off Average |
| Daytona International Speedway | 10 | 147 | 5 | +5 | +5 |
| California Speedway | 10 | 100 | 43 | -33 | -28 |
| Las Vegas Motor Speedway | 10 | 141 | 21 | -21 | -49 |
| Atlanta Motor Speedway | 8 | 150 | 5 | +3 | -46 |
| Bristol Motor Speedway | 18 | 114 | 12 | +6 | -40 |
| Martinsville Speedway | 10 | 148 | 1 | +9 | -31 |
| Texas Motor Speedway | 16 | 122 | 3 | +13 | -18 |
| Phoenix International Raceway | 13 | 130 | 2 | +11 | -7 |
| Talladega Superspeedway | 9 | 149 | 2 | +7 | 0 |
| Richmond International Raceway | 15 | 125 | 6 | +9 | +9 |
| Darlington Raceway | 13 | 125 | 12 | +1 | +10 |
| Lowes Motor Speedway | 22 | 104 | 42 | -20 | -10 |
| Dover International Speedway | 10 | 140 | 25 | -15 | -25 |
| Pocono Raceway | 18 | 116 | 3 | +15 | -10 |
| Michigan International Speedway | 11 | 137 | 41 | -31 | -41 |
| Infineon Raceway | 14 | 131 | 28 | -14 | -55 |
| Daytona International Speedway | 10 | 147 | 1 | +9 | -46 |
| Chicagoland Speedway | 10 | 149 | 32 | -22 | -68 |
| New Hampshire International Speedway | 18 | 119 | 37 | -19 | -87 |
| Pocono Raceway | 18 | 116 | 7 | +11 | -76 |
| Indianapolis Motor Speedway | 7 | 156 | 8 | +1 | -75 |
| Watkins Glen International | 3 | 175 | 2 | -1 | -76 |
| Michigan International Speedway | 11 | 137 | 3 | +8 | -68 |
| Bristol Motor Speedway | 18 | 114 | 22 | -4 | -72 |
| California Speedway | 22 | 100 | 9 | +13 | -59 |
| Richmond International Raceway | 15 | 125 | 18 | -3 | -62 |